President-elect prepares to enter a high-stakes foreign-policy arena made even more unpredictable as he vows a fresh approach
WASHINGTON—President-elect Donald Trump is set to inherit a high-stakes foreign-policy landscape made even more uncertain by his own suggestions that he will abandon or reconsider longstanding American policy positions.
Traditional U.S. alliances and relationships, particularly in the Middle East, are under severe strain. Russia has helped prop up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad , Iran is gaining influence in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has cracked down following a coup attempt last summer and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spent years at odds with the Obama administration.
The U.S. and its allies also have made some progress combating Islamic State but the extremist group retains strongholds in Iraq and Syria.
In Asia, China has been developing islands in the South China Sea, and North Korea continues to develop its nuclear-weapon capability. President Barack Obama warned Mr. Trump that North Korea is the biggest foreign policy threat he will face.In Europe, Britain’s vote to leave the European Union and the onset of a refugee crisis has placed the postwar order on the continent under fresh strain.
Closer to home, in the Western Hemisphere, Mr. Trump must consider how he will handle newly re-established relations with Cuba and what to do with the U.S. prison facility at Guantanamo Bay, which is set to house approximately 40 prisoners when he takes office.
In an early sign of the differences between Barack Obama and Donald Trump, the latter’s procession is shaping up to be very different.
Mr. Trump has vowed a fresh approach in almost all of these areas, often floating ideas that haven’t been tested or refined and that carry uncertain outcomes.
“He considers it important that you not know what he’s going to do,” said Jon Alterman, senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It’s very new to have a president who prides himself on being unpredictable.”
Of all the foreign-policy challenges he will face, Mr. Trump’s desire to warm relations with Moscow has drawn the most attention, from lawmakers in the U.S. and allies abroad who fear Russia’s destabilizing actions in Europe and the U.S. elections.
European allies are concerned about Mr. Trump’s comments that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is obsolete and suggestions that the U.S. use its commitments under the alliance as a bargaining chip to get allies to pay more for their defense. The Obama administration consistently has voiced strong support for the alliance while also urging allies to contribute more. In the wake of Russia’s move to annex Crimea, Mr. Obama has ordered thousands of troops to start permanent rotations throughout Europe to shore up allies’ defenses against Moscow.
The Obama administration imposed sanctions on Russia for its interference in Ukraine and again in response to its efforts to meddle in the 2016 U.S. elections. Western allies have warned the Trump administration about the consequences of not holding Russia accountable for seizing Crimea in what they say is in violation of international law.
While the Obama administration has stressed the importance of maintaining a strong European Union, Mr. Trump said over the weekend that whether Europe is united or made up of stronger nation states doesn’t matter to the U.S.
In Iraq and Syria, Mr. Trump has said he would step up the military campaign to defeat Islamic State and in doing so, would work more closely with Russia. Secretary of State John Kerry attempted to forge a closer military relationship with Russia as part of a cease-fire deal in Syria last year, but those efforts ultimately collapsed. Russia and Turkey are hosting Syria talks later this month and have invited the Trump administration to take part.
Mr. Obama is passing off to Mr. Trump a continuing military operation against Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, where the U.S. has committed more than 5,000 troops, and the U.S. has some 8,400 troops in Afghanistan. The Trump administration is likely to review both campaigns and decide how, if at all, to alter the U.S. presence.
Mr. Trump spent much of the 2016 campaign talking tough on China and since winning the election has said that the “One China” policy, a bedrock agreement over Taiwan, is negotiable. Mr. Trump’s pick for secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, prompted fresh controversy after suggesting in his confirmation hearing that the U.S. should block Beijing from Chinese-built islands in the South China Sea.
The Obama administration has conducted frequent “freedom of navigation” operations in the South China Sea and has urged claimants to resolve disputes peacefully, but has been cautious about directly taking sides in the disputes.
Mr. Trump also has been critical of a deal between the U.S., five world powers and Iran to curtail Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Mr. Netanyahu’s staunch opposition to the deal and the Obama administration’s recent decision not to use its veto at the United Nations on a resolution harshly condemning Israeli settlement building have inflamed tensions between the longtime allies.