Antipathy from his home country could scupper Pole’s candidacy

by: Alex Barker in Brussels and Henry Foy in London

Donald Tusk’s bid to be re-elected as president of the European Council is winning broad early support from EU leaders, in spite of antipathy from his home state of Poland that could yet scupper his candidacy.

The question of Mr Tusk’s second term is to be resolved at an EU summit in early March. Several diplomats said that an overwhelming majority of nations supported his renomination in initial soundings, although at this point no rival candidates had emerged.

What would typically be a routine two-and-a-half-year extension decision has proved unusually contentious because of Mr Tusk’s poisonous relationship with Jaroslaw Kaczynski, leader of Poland’s Law and Justice party.

Mr Kaczynski, who was Mr Tusk’s fiercest domestic rival when he was prime minister of Poland between 2007 and 2014, holds him “morally responsible” for the death of his twin brother Lech, who was president of Poland when he died in a plane crash in Smolensk, Russia, during Mr Tusk’s premiership. Multiple inquiries have found that pilot error and bad weather were to blame.

Two senior EU diplomats said Mr Kaczynski recently refused to back Mr Tusk’s re-election in private conversations — including with Angela Merkel, German chancellor — suggesting instead that Poland may issue a “European arrest warrant” against him.

Mr Kaczynski’s desire to discredit Mr Tusk in the eyes of Polish voters is, however, in conflict with the intentions of some of the country’s diplomats, who hope to keep relations with EU partners as smooth as possible. Warsaw has yet to take an official position on whether or not to support Mr Tusk’s re-election.

Mr Tusk has presided over a tumultuous period for the EU since his election in December 2014, overseeing bruising summits on Greece’s debt crisis, migration, Brexit and Russia. His forthright approach and plain speaking has contrasted with his more circumspect predecessor Herman Van Rompuy, a former Belgian premier.

While Mr Kaczynski’s hostility has reinforced support for Mr Tusk in some EU countries, the risk of an ugly stand-off with Poland could be used to promote alternative candidates. One senior northern diplomat said rivals were waiting for Warsaw “to do the dirty work”. As holder of the EU’s rotating presidency, Joseph Muscat, the Maltese premier, is leading formal consultations with leaders over Mr Tusk’s future.

Europe’s centre-left political group is aggrieved at their lack of representation in EU institutions, particularly since Martin Schulz was replaced as European Parliament president by Antonio Tajani, a centre-right candidate. Both Mr Tusk and Jean-Claude Juncker, the European Commission president, hail from the centre-right European People’s Party.

Italy’s centre-left government has in the past had reservations about Mr Tusk’s reluctant stance over sharing of refugee arrivals. Some diplomats have speculated that France’s outgoing Socialist president François Hollande may be interested in a European leadership job. However, as yet Rome and Paris have given no indication that they are preparing to oppose Mr Tusk.

Any attempt to unseat Mr Tusk with a southern socialist is likely to be strongly resisted by eastern and northern EU states.

The Tusk-Kaczynski stand-off puts Ms Merkel in a particularly awkward position. One aide to Mr Kaczynski who was present at his meeting with Ms Merkel said the topic “was brought up” at the end. “The position on it is clear: we cannot support this candidacy,” Ryszard Legutko, a member of the European Parliament and a confidant of the party leader, said afterwards. Besides, there are various proceedings against Donald Tusk, which can result in some political, legal or criminal responsibility,” Mr Legutko said. He was apparently referring to suggestions from some Polish politicians that Mr Tusk bears some responsibility for the Smolensk crash.

Mr Tusk would ideally seek unanimous support for his nomination. But Mr Juncker’s appointment in the teeth of British opposition has shown that EU leaders are willing to overrule one another on sensitive appointments. Some diplomats speculated that Poland may seek to note its reservations, without formally voting against Mr Tusk.

“There are essentially two different positions on this, which makes it a little complicated,” a senior Polish diplomat told the FT. “[Kaczynski] is torn between attempting to hurt Tusk and seeing the benefits of keeping him there.”

Mr Tusk is seen by some Polish opposition politicians as the most likely person to unite the national opposition into a successful challenge against Mr Kaczynski, leading some to suspect that his continued employment in Brussels is a sensible approach by Law and Justice.