Poll gains for French presidential contender undone by contentious comments

yesterday by: Anne-Sylvaine Chassany in Paris

Emmanuel Macron has become a serious contender for France’s highest office by attracting a diverse groups of voters with catch-all rhetoric to fix the country’s woes. Yet with only two months to go before the first round of the presidential election, the Macron magic may be losing its sparkle as he comes under pressure to clarify his policies.

After a surge in the polls last month, support for the 39-year-old former economy minister has been eroded by a series of controversial comments that has cast doubt over his readiness to govern and fuelled criticism that he had so far failed to outline a complete and detailed set of policies.

Mr Macron received a welcome boost on Wednesday when François Bayrou, the centrist veteran politician, ruled out a rival bid and instead offered to form an alliance. Mr Macron described Mr Bayrou’s decision as a “turning point” for his campaign. But the rookie politician faces an uphill task keeping his supporters together as he spells out his policies in the coming days, political analysts say. Related article Macron woos expats in London with vision of better France Staunchly pro-Europe candidate meets Theresa May and warns on single market access “

Macron is a bit trapped in his neither left nor right logic; he will soon realise he can’t please everyone,” Luc Rouban, a professor at Cevipof, a research institute at Science Po university, says. “Even if people like to say the right-left divide no longer matters, it still prevails if you ask them about specific topics, such as immigration or the economy.” Mr Macron, who set up his movement En Marche! last year before stepping down from the Socialist government, has built his popularity by appealing to voters from across the political spectrum.

According to Ifop, the pollsters, Mr Macron attracts a third of those who voted for Socialist president François Hollande in 2012 and 30 per cent of those who backed Mr Bayrou. Seventeen per cent of those who backed Nicolas Sarkozy, the former centre-right leader, also say they plan to vote for Mr Macron, as well as 14 per cent of those who supported far-left politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon five years ago.

Mr Macron also appeals to undecided voters: 28 per cent of them support him, the highest score in this category. Only supporters of far-right leader Marine Le Pen seem immune to his charms.

The numbers suggest Mr Macron’s youth and cross-party approach, blending a dose of economic deregulation and liberal views on social issues, have met an untapped demand in the French electorate. But the risk is that the candidate loses some of his supporters when he starts disclosing concrete proposals, according to Jérôme Fourquet, author of the Ifop study. Emmanuel Macron is the only candidate offering economic optimism but he needs to set out detail quickly

“Diversity is a big weakness because this electorate in the making is literally evenly split on big themes that typically dominate presidential campaigns,” Mr Fourquet said. “One can understand why Mr Macron maintains a dose of ambiguity on his proposals because any clarification risks sending a chunk of his new sympathisers back to where they came from.”

When asked whether there are too many immigrants in France, about half of Mr Macron’s supporters agree and half of them disagree. They are also evenly split on the question of whether the unemployed could find work if they really wanted to, and on the role of the state in the economy, according to the Ifop study.

The challenge of reconciling diverse positions was laid bare in recent days when, in an effort to broaden his pitch beyond his favourite subject of the economy, he stepped into a political minefield. During a trip to Algiers, Mr Macron caused uproar among French veterans of Algeria’s war of independence and ex-residents of the former French colony when he said France’s century-long rule there had involved “crimes against humanity”. Macron is a bit trapped in his neither left nor right logic; he will soon realise he can’t please everyone Luc Rouban, professor at Cevipof

He triggered more confusion when he sought to mend fences with his critics a few days later, saying he “understood” them and “loved them”. Mr Macron also irked people on the left when he said the government, in which he was an economic adviser, had “humiliated” people protesting against gay marriage.

Mr Macron’s ratings poll ratings have now started to slide, adding to jitters across Europe over the prospect of a far-right victory.

An Elabe survey released on Tuesday predicted he would win 18.5 per cent of the vote in the first round on 23 April, down 5 points from a survey published on 8 February. François Fillon, the centre-right candidate who is embroiled in an embezzlement investigation, is on about 21 per cent and Marine Le Pen, the far-right leader, 28 per cent.

“It will be a balancing act for him to maintain his electorate while also reaching out to new voters,” said Adélaïde Zulfikarpasic, head of BVA’s political surveys. Mr Macron’s electorate appears to the be most fickle, Ms Zulfikarpasic said: more than half of those who say they plan to vote for the candidate also say they could change their mind. This compares with less than 40 per cent for Mr Fillon’s sympathisers and less than 20 per cent for Ms Le Pen’s supporters.

Mr Bayrou’s support will add not just additional votes but also credibility to Mr Macron’s bid. It will “give some momentum behind Emmanuel Macron and boost his chances,” Mr Fourquet noted. “Two months before the first round, it could break the glass ceiling that Mr Bayrou hit in past presidential elections and make [Mr Macron’s] ambition to overhaul the French political landscape an entirely plausible prospect.”