The voters’ priority is the economy and it should be Abe’s as well

yesterday

The plunge in Shinzo Abe’s opinion poll ratings was sudden but not surprising. In the past five weeks, the Japanese prime minister’s approval rating has slumped from above 50 per cent to 34 per cent, throwing both his own future and that of his economic programme — known as Abenomics — into confusion. But Abenomics must continue, with Mr Abe or without.

Mr Abe’s fall from grace has little to do with the economy, which is performing well. Rather, it reflects a pair of disastrously similar scandals. In one case a private school operator called Moritomo Gakuen bought discounted public land. In another, an operator called Kake Gakuen got a licence to open a new veterinary school in a special economic zone. Both companies are linked to Mr Abe. There are signs that officials acted, perhaps unprompted, to please the boss.

These scandals have badly undermined public trust in Mr Abe. He denies any direct involvement, but as prime minister he is responsible for his government’s actions, and his dismissive response to questions has given the impression that he does not see any problem. In both cases, there should be full and transparent accounting of how the decisions were made. That is what the public is demanding.

Assuming no outright corruption comes to light, Mr Abe has the difficult task of rebuilding public trust before standing for re-election next autumn. There are two ways he could try to do this. One is a radical reshuffle of his cabinet and a shift away from Abenomics, signalling change. Another is to redouble his efforts on the economy — and only on the economy — signalling determination. This latter course is the right one.

Mr Abe has prospered as prime minister for more than four years because he offers economic promise. It is true that wages have risen little. But Japan’s public can feel the tighter jobs market, hear the confidence of business, and see the rise in stock prices. They may not love the low interest rate consequences of massive Bank of Japan stimulus, but it easily beats the years of stagnation.

Where Mr Abe has gone wrong is turning away from the economy to focus on issues of constitution and foreign affairs. They matter greatly to him but little to the average voter.

A 2015 security bill and a conspiracy law this summer both hurt him in the polls. Now he has vowed to revise Japan’s constitution by 2020. The revision he wants is perfectly reasonable, but an extremely low priority on any objective list of issues facing the country.

Instead, Mr Abe should focus on prosperity, and not in the cosmetic way that marked past revamps of Abenomics. That means reappointing Haruhiko Kuroda as governor of the Bank of Japan or, if Mr Kuroda is not willing, choosing a candidate just as determined to end deflation.

It also means resisting demands to raise taxes while inflation is still weak. And while the importance of structural reform is overstated, serious changes to the labour market are needed, not just a crowd-pleasing effort to end long working hours for the salaryman.

The end of the Abe era is in sight. Sometimes, it seems that Mr Abe only cares about economic policy as a way to win power. He must recognise that his legacy does not depend on a minor constitutional reform. It will rest, instead, on whether he was the man who ended two decades of deflation.

The greatest service Mr Abe can now perform is to persuade his party and his public that Abenomics must continue, even after his time in power has come to a close.