Greece is once again unique—for all the wrong reasons.
As the eurozone descended into turmoil, Greece didn’t seem so unusual: Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Cyprus all took their turn on the front line. Now its one-time crisis peers are increasingly pulling away.
That isn’t only clear from the lack of market contagion during the latest tensions over Greece; even as Greek stocks reopened Monday after a five-week suspension and promptly fell more than 20%, the rest of Europe barely blinked. It is also visible in survey readings and hard economic data. Most nations once lumped together as being on the “periphery” of the eurozone have, at the very least, found stability.
In fact, Ireland and Spain are experiencing strong rebounds. Last week’s Irish gross domestic product data showed the economy expanded 1.4% in the first quarter from a quarter earlier, and 6.5% from the previous year. That puts output 3.4% above its 2007 peak, according to ING.

Spain has yet to recover all its lost output; but second-quarter growth was 1% from a quarter earlier, the fastest pace since 2007. The central banks of both countries last week upgraded their forecasts for 2015 growth.
The figures are less impressive for Cyprus, Italy and Portugal, but all have returned to growth, albeit in Italy’s case after a grinding, drawn-out recession. Greece, where growth had finally returned in 2014, faces further recession, however, even though output is 25% below its 2007 level. The full costs of the Greek government’s standoff with Europe will only become clear later this year.
The mood music too has proved resilient to Greece. The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator rose in July for the eurozone as a whole, though the Greek domestic indicator plummeted. July’s manufacturing purchasing managers indexes showed eurozone output close to its June high. Italy vaulted to a 51-month high at 55.3, while Greece plunged to a record low 30.2, index provider Markit said.

It is perhaps not surprising that Ireland and Spain are ahead in their recoveries; both had relatively traditional, albeit spectacular, real estate busts. These are more straightforward to overcome than the deep-seated problems Greece faces.
Further, both nations had shown strong growth before the crisis. Ireland had little to do to fix its economy structurally; Spain has carried out reforms. Italy and Portugal have bigger challenges, with deeper structural issues, but are making progress. Cyprus has exited capital controls.
A weaker euro, lower oil prices and ultra-loose monetary policy should help all these nations, which together account for 30% of eurozone GDP. Only Greece, excluded from quantitative easing for the time being and enmeshed in fresh financial and political turmoil, is set to miss out on the better conditions for growth the eurozone is enjoying.
For investors, a better growth outlook for Italy in particular could make its bonds an attractive bet versus Spain, where political risk may rise in the second half of the year ahead of elections. Eurozone equity markets have already priced in most of the recovery, making earnings the key variable from here: the second quarter so far is showing promising signs on that front.
Europe’s former crisis nations have more to do to shore up their futures. But except in Greece, the worst now appears to be in the past.