It was something of a year to forget in 2015 for the French economy but Moody’s Analytics has some – emphasis on some – good news for the Élysée Palace.

Moody’s Analytics – a division of the ratings agency – believes growth of the French economy will pick up pace this year, driven by private consumption as consumers remain surprisingly resilient despite concerns over the wider global economy.

But here’s the catch: although GDP growth is likely to accelerate, the pick-up won’t be enough to fuel a significant rebound in employment. France’s unemployment rate remains stubbornly in the double digits – at 10.1 per cent in November compared to 4.5 per cent in Germany and 5.2 per cent in the UK.

The French economy expanded by an anaemic 0.3 per cent in the third quarter, following no growth in the previous three months (see chart below). The picture is not likely to get healthier for the fourth quarter, with concerns that a fall in confidence following the Paris terrorist attacks in November may push growth lower in the final three months of the year. And Insee, France’s statistics organisation, halved its estimate for the fourth quarter to 0.2 per cent before Christmas, in part due to the impact of the Paris attacks.

Moody’s is predicting real GDP will improve in 2016, by 1.4 per cent from estimated growth of 1.1 per cent for the whole of 2015. There will be a further improvement in 2017, with a rise in real GDP of 1.7 per cent, Moody’s says. Growth will be driven by factors such as consumer spending and an increase in private investment.

However, public spending and government consumption will remain low as the French Government has very little wriggle room with the public finances. Moody’s explains:

The government has a narrow margin for maneuver due to tight finances. It is obliged to pay out large amounts of social benefits because of high and lengthy unemployment and the generous pension and social systems.

In further bad news, Moody’s believes the country’s unemployment rate will remain high “until at least the end of the year”, arguing that unless the government bites the bullet and undertakes “deep structural reforms”, the French labour market will need an annual GDP growth rate of around 1.5 per cent for unemployment figures to fall. This, Moody’s opines, “won’t happen until the second half of 2016″.

Added to domestic worries, Moody’s also highlights that France is exposed to a slowdown in emerging market economies, particularly China, Brazil, India, Indonesia and Russia. Volatile energy prices “may also be a worry”, while the immigration crisis and any more security concerns may similarly pose a threat to growth this year. Moody’s writes:

A potentially mismanaged immigration crisis could darken the short-term forecast as could more terrorist attacks, which may keep more tourists away from France. If tourist numbers were to slump, this would pummel the tourist and service industry and cut into retail sales. Even the boost France should get from hosting the Euro 2016 soccer championship would not offset a serious downturn in these sectors.

All in all, it sounds pretty bleak. But they are clearly an optimistic bunch at Moody’s, concluding:

Even accounting for these risks, France will likely have a better 2016 and set out on a more stable and solid growth path in the years ahead.