China, the world’s biggest exporter, delivered a gloomy prognosis for the global economy, warning that falling foreign demand would result in weaker trade at home this year.

The warning came as the country’s customs office revealed better than expected trade in December, the same month the renminbi saw its second steepest fall since 2005.

Economists hailed the improved Chinese export data in December, saying a widening trade surplus could lend support to the renminbi, where declines this month have sparked a stock market sell-off.

China’s exports, measured in US dollars, declined 1.4 per cent in December month-on-month, narrowing the 6.8 per cent fall seen in November, the customs service said on Wednesday.

Imports fell 7.6 per cent during December, compared with November’s 8.7 per cent drop, as falling commodity prices continued to take a toll. As a result, China’s trade surplus widened to $60.1bn in the final month of 2015.

Economists said the figures overshot their expectations: a Bloomberg poll had forecast an 8 per cent decline.

While cautioning against pinning too much on one month’s figures, Julia Wang, Greater China economist for HSBC bank, said: “It should take some pressure off the renminbi in the near term.”

Analysts scoured the figures for clues as to whether the depreciation of the renminbi has improved the competitiveness of the Chinese economy.

Analysts were split on the impact of December’s 1.5 per cent drop in the renminbi against the US dollar on the trade data.

Commerzbank said the weaker renminbi likely contributed to the stronger trade performance. Ms Wang however noted that the renminbi had been far more stable against the basket of foreign currencies tracked by China’s central bank — a better trade reference since the US accounts for just one-fifth of China’s trade.

“The amount of weakness that has taken place with respect to basket of currencies is far more modest, so it shouldn’t have been the biggest factor behind the trade number,” she said.

Figures for the whole of 2015 showed China’s exports contracted 2.8 per cent and imports fell 14.1 per cent, in US dollar terms. Commerzbank said in a research note that slowing imports highlighted the country’s sluggish demand for commodities.

“This reflects China’s transition towards a more consumption-driven growth model, which has damped demand for bulk commodities,” analysts at Commerzbank said, adding it was also attributable to a slowdown in the property market.