President Barack Obama’s climate change policy has been left in a state of suspended animation until next year at the earliest — after he leaves office — as a result of a decision from the US Supreme Court on Tuesday.
The court ruled that the administration could no longer enforce deadlines for complying with its Clean Power Plan, the new regulations for limiting carbon dioxide emissions from electricity generation that are the most important component of Mr Obama’s climate strategy.
The decision means the regulations can make no further progress while legal challenges are heard first by the DC circuit court, with hearings in June, and then probably by the Supreme Court next year.
Stephen Eule of the US Chamber of Commerce, the business lobby group, said the implications of the court’s decision “are likely to extend well beyond the United States”, calling into question Mr Obama’s pledge to cut US greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28 per cent from 2005 levels by 2025.
Eric Schultz, White House spokesman, said the administration was still “confident that we’re going to prevail on the merits, when the Clean Power Plan rule gets its full day in court”.
He added that the US still expected to be able to meet the emissions reduction commitments it made at the Paris climate talks last December.
Miguel Arias Canete, EU energy commissioner, said: “We have confidence in all countries to deliver on what they promised,” adding that he would meet Todd Stern, the US climate envoy, in Brussels next week “to better understand the potential implications of the Supreme Court’s decision”.
The fate of US climate policy was already dependent on the outcome of November’s presidential election. All the potential Republican candidates have pledged to scrap the Clean Power Plan.
However, the court’s ruling will have the immediate effect of lifting a September 6 deadline for states to submit plans to the federal Environmental Protection Agency showing how they would comply with new limits on their carbon dioxide emissions.
It also highlights the risks inherent in Mr Obama’s attempt to curb greenhouse gas emissions using regulations, which are subject to challenge in the courts, rather than through new legislation.
An effort to pass climate legislation failed in 2010, and any renewed attempt would stand no chance in today’s Republican-controlled Congress.
The Supreme Court ruling suggests it is very likely to hear the case brought against the Clean Power Plan by 29 states and state agencies, led by the Republican attorneys-general of West Virginia and Texas, with support from coal companies and some utilities
Patrick Morrisey, West Virginia’s attorney-general, said he was not taking a view on the issue of climate change, but his job was to “enforce the rule of law” in preventing regulatory over-reach by the administration.
West Virginia is one of the largest coal-producing states in the US, and has lost 10,700 jobs in the mining and logging industries since 2011, according to official data.
Jonathan Adler, a professor at Case Western University School of Law, said the fact that the Supreme Court was likely to hear the case did not necessarily mean it was leaning towards blocking Mr Obama’s plan.
He added that the case could hinge on the interpretation of the 1990 revision to the Clean Air Act, when there had been “a mess” created in the critical Section 111.
“This is a scenario we don’t see very often where conflicting interpretations are possible,” he said. “It’s a very interesting legal question.”
This isn’t going to stop, even if the court’s final ruling is negative. The shift away from high-carbon fuels towards cleaner energy and efficiency is unstoppable
The administration has been supported by 18 states, renewable energy industries, and a different group of utilities.
David Doniger of the Natural Resources Defense Council, an environmental campaign group, said there were other forces quite apart from the Clean Power Plan that were already working to cut US greenhouse gas emissions, including tax credits for wind and solar power that were extended last year as well as cheap shale gas that has been replacing coal for power generation.
US electricity generation from coal fell last November to its lowest level for 35 years, according to the government’s Energy Information Administration.
Mr Doniger said: “This isn’t going to stop, even if the court’s final ruling is negative. The shift away from high-carbon fuels towards cleaner energy and efficiency is unstoppable. What’s at issue is only the speed of it.”
Financial Times