German growth pickup contrasts with slowdowns in the U.S. and the U.K.
Destatis said Germany’s gross domestic product grew at a quarterly rate of 0.7% in the first three months of the year, which translates into an annualized rate of 2.7% and is more than double the rate of 0.3% recorded in the fourth quarter of 2015. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a slightly smaller quarterly gain of 0.6%.
Germany’s pickup contrasts with slowdowns in the U.S. and the U.K. Barring any big upward surprises from Japan and Canada, which have yet to release first-quarter GDP numbers, it makes Germany the fastest-growing out of the seven leading industrialized economies.
But economists cautioned that Europe’s largest economy probably won’t be able to maintain its brisk pace in the second quarter, given lackluster global demand and stubbornly weak corporate investment.
“German economic growth is likely to slow somewhat in the second quarter,” the economics ministry said.
Germany’s stellar showing at the start of the year, they said, was partly the result of the mild winter weather buoying construction activity and catch-up effects from a weak end to 2015.
“Positive impulses came mainly from the domestic economy,” Destatis said.
Public spending rose from the fourth quarter, Destatis said, as the government faces rising costs related to the record influx of migrants. A buoyant labor market and low energy prices, meanwhile, continued to fuel household demand.
“Given the mild winter weather, investments in both construction as well as equipment increased markedly,” it said. Net trade, however, weighed slightly on GDP growth in the first quarter, as imports rose more strongly than exports.
“We were also very surprised about the strong first quarter,” said Heinz-Jürgen Prokop, a member of the board at TRUMPF machine tools in southern Germany.
But a strong first quarter is no reason to get carried away, he said. “We are not euphoric. The overall picture is very mixed and, if you look at the machine tool industry as a whole, than production has moved virtually sideways over the past four to five years,” said Mr. Prokop, who also chairs Germany’s VDW machine tool builders’ association.
The U.K.’s upcoming vote on European Union membership on June 23 is weighing on investors’ confidence, too. “The British pound has depreciated strongly, which makes our products more expensive in the U.K.,” Mr. Prokop said.
Later Friday, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and some eastern and central European countries are also due to publish GDP data.
Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal last week forecast that the eurozone’s economy as a whole grew at a quarterly rate of 0.6% in the first three months of the year, in line with the European Union statistics agency’s flash GDP estimate from late April. Eurostat is due to update its GDP estimate at 0900 GMT Friday.