Pressure for big stimulus subsides as quarterly data signal avoidance of technical recession
Japan’s economy grew at an annualised rate of 1.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2016, easily beating expectations of a 0.3 per cent rise, in a big boost to the country’s beleaguered policymakers.
Rising gross domestic product reverses a contraction in the fourth quarter of 2015 and means Japan has avoided another technical recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth.
The faster than expected pace of growth suggests the Japanese economy is managing to shake off the effects of a slowdown in China and a stronger yen — at least for now — with domestic demand having more momentum than previously thought.
Robust growth data are likely to mean a smaller fiscal stimulus by the government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, which was poised to act if the data had been bad.
The government has already announced a ¥780bn ($7.2bn) supplementary budget to help reconstruction after a recent earthquake on the southern island of Kyushu but it is also planning a further stimulus of several trillion yen. Stronger growth data also reduces the urgency of announcing a delay in next year’s planned rise in consumption tax from 8 per cent to 10 per cent.
Following the data, Nobuteru Ishihara, economy minister, reiterated that the consumption tax would go ahead unless there was a serious economic shock. But he added: “We need to pay careful attention to conditions in China and emerging markets as well as volatility in the markets.”
The growth data will give heart to the Bank of Japan — suggesting the economy is growing faster than its long-run trend of about 0.5 per cent — although it is unlikely to have much direct effect on monetary policy. The BoJ is still under pressure to ease because of the rising yen and the weakness of inflation.
Consumption contributed 1 percentage point to annualised growth, government consumption added 0.6 percentage points and trade chipped in 0.8 percentage points of growth. The stronger pace of consumption is particularly encouraging, suggesting higher wages are turning into spending at the shops.
But that was partly offset by falling investment, which knocked 0.9 percentage points off annualised growth. The rising yen is discouraging businesses from adding new capacity at home and the BoJ’s move to negative interest rates of minus 0.1 per cent in January is yet to revive their appetite for investment.
Although the figures send a positive message about the economy, Japan’s initial GDP data are notoriously unreliable, and revisions often change the picture substantially. Meanwhile, analysts cautioned that the strong figures were unlikely to be replicated in the second quarter.
Takashi Miwa, chief economist at Nomura, said that with a slower than expected recovery in China and other overseas economies, Japan was likely to revert to flat or negative growth in the second quarter.
“The strength in [first-quarter] figures is not backed by actual economic conditions,” Mr Miwa said. “With prospects for achieving the inflation target weaker, both the government and the BOJ will not conclude that there is a reduced need for a policy response.”