Investors appear to have concluded that the U.K. will vote to stay in the European Union in June, leaving them exposed to steep losses should Britain elect to leave.

Opinion polls show Britain leaning toward a vote to stay in the EU in the June 23 referendum. Bookmakers have cut the odds on a vote to “leave” to 19% from 37% in April, according to Betfair Group PLC.

That shift appears to have reassured investors that Britain is staying in the EU. The country’s bond and stock markets have barely reacted to the possibility of a so-called Brexit. While the pound has fallen on the prospect, the currency began reversing that decline in late February.

But some analysts point out that political polls and betting have called British political events incorrectly before, and that sentiment in referendums can swing in the closing days of campaigning.

“In the early months of this year, there was a big selloff in Brexit-related stocks,“ said James Ross, who manages Henderson Global Investors’ U.K. Alpha Fund. ”But since around the turn of this month we’ve seen a rapid reversal, and complacency has reached a bit of a dangerous level.”

In recent months, a host of major financial institutions, from the Bank of England to the International Monetary Fund, have warned British voters of dire consequences should they vote to leave the world’s largest trading bloc. Supporters of Brexit say the British economy will thrive freed of EU red tape and able to carve out its own trade deals.

But rather than scaring markets, the pessimistic predictions appear to have pushed investors to assume that Brits won’t risk a Brexit.

The U.K.’s main equity markets have barely budged on the prospect, performing broadly in line with U.S. markets.

Nor have foreign investors withdrawn capital from British banks or sold the country’s sovereign bonds, or gilts, data from the Bank of England shows. The 10-year gilt currently yields 1.47%, down from 1.94% a year ago. The Treasury is having no problems selling bonds, with one measure of demand for new issues, the bid-to-cover ratio, recently touching its highest levels since the middle of 2014, according to analysts at Capital Economics.

On corporate debt, the yield on sterling-denominated bonds has fallen relative to their euro-denominated peers since early March.

The exception has been the pound. Sterling fell by as much as 11% from November to early April, as measured against a basket of other currencies. The BOE estimated that half of that decline was due to Brexit-related uncertainty.

But the pound has since retraced some of that decline, rising by more than 4%, underscoring how investors are more relaxed about the referendum the closer they get to its date. It is also unclear how much of the pound’s decline is due to the referendum and how much is down to concern over the U.K. economy.

Leveraged funds—which include hedge funds—now have the smallest net short position since December, according to data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. As recently as mid-March, leveraged funds had 74,920 more short than long positions. As of May 17, there are just 7,957 more short than long contracts.

The investment division of pension providers Royal London is among those funds that aren’t hedged against the possibility of the pound falling after a vote to leave.

“We think it’s very likely there’s a “remain“ vote and we are investing accordingly,” said Trevor Greetham, multiasset head at Royal London Asset Management, which has around £88 billion under management.

But some investors and analysts warn there is a risk that investors have become too relaxed.

Pollsters have frequently called major political events incorrectly. Surveys suggested a statistical dead heat between two political parties in the U.K’s May 2015 general election, but the Conservative Party swept to a majority.

Voting intentions can also shift closer to the actual referendum day, as it did with 2014’s vote on Scottish independence.

Those who want Britain to leave the EU argue that any effect on markets will be brief, once it becomes clear the economy hasn’t suffered any damage. A fall in the pound will also be good news for exporters.

But most analysts and economists argue that a vote to leave the EU will have a dramatic effect across Europe.

Morgan Stanley says that the pound could fall to $1.30 by the end of the year in the event of a “leave” vote. Sterling currently trades at $1.47. HSBC forecast an even bigger decline, suggesting sterling could fall by as much as 20% against the dollar.

Analysts say that a slower economy would likely drive the Bank of England to keep interest rates ultralow for longer. The expectation of lower rates in turn pushes down the currency.

In equity markets, Goldman Sachs predicts the FTSE 250 could fall by between 15 and 20%.