What to Watch at the ECB Meeting

The Wall Street Journal The Wall Street Journal

No action is expected, but investors will be listening for any remarks from Mario Draghi on inflation and Brexit

Even though analysts expect the European Central Bank on Thursday to hold fire, investors will be looking for hints as to how the central bank might react if inflation fails to pick up and how it could respond to external shocks, such as a possible British exit from the European Union.

The central bank’s governing council is gathering off site in Vienna, for one of two policy meetings a year held away from its Frankfurt stronghold. ECB President Mario Draghi’s postmeeting news conference is set for 2:30 p.m. (Vienna time).

Here are five pressing questions ahead of the meeting:

What is the ECB expected to do?

Take an early summer break. While inflation in the currency area is hovering around zero, far below the ECB’s target of around 2%, the economic outlook has brightened. Oil prices have surged more than 70% since January, European stock markets are up and the euro has been drifting down against the dollar, a boon for the region’s exporters. Policy makers are unlikely to see any need for fresh action now. “Higher oil prices, improved [economic] growth in the first quarter and strengthening business and consumer confidence in May have given the ECB welcome breathing space,” said Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS Global Insight in London.

What will investors be watching on Thursday?

New economic forecasts. The ECB is due to update its quarterly staff macroeconomic projections, and economists will look closely at where policy makers expect consumer prices to go. In March, the ECB predicted that inflation would rise to 1.3% next year and to 1.6% in 2018. If those numbers don’t increase soon, even after repeated boosts to the ECB’s stimulus, that could indicate the central bank doesn’t think its existing measures have been sufficiently effective.

Is more ECB action likely this year?

Economists can’t agree. Recent economic data has been largely positive, but the ECB’s quantitative-easing program is due to end in less than nine months and inflation is still far too weak for policy makers. The rebound in oil prices should help drive inflation toward 1% by year-end, economists say, and some recent policy measures have yet to be implemented, including corporate-bond purchases. But policy makers worry that low inflation rates could become entrenched if they start to affect wage negotiations. For now, patience will be the watchword.

What else could Mr. Draghi divulge?

The ECB is set to start buying corporate bonds for the first time this month as part of its expanded QE program, and Mr. Draghi could elaborate on that program, including how large it will be. He is likely to be asked how QE is proceeding so far and whether the ECB is running into bottlenecks in some government-bond markets, like Portugal and Ireland. He may also indicate the ECB’s approach to possible external shocks, such as a British decision later this month to exit the EU or another rate increase by the Federal Reserve.

Is Greece back on the agenda?

Possibly, but this time for a positive reason: The ECB is expected to start accepting Greek government bonds as collateral in its liquidity operations soon—perhaps even this week—for the first time in more than a year. That would be a boon for Greek banks, which have been relying heavily on more expensive funding from their national central bank.