Britain is unwell. Nobody could look at the results from the EU referendum and conclude that the United Kingdom is happy with itself. It falls to the Conservative party to take back control and shape Britain’s future — as well as being the current party in power. Labour’s turmoil means it can offer nothing constructive to the big questions facing the country. Brexit Britain is likely to become a new-look Tory Britain.
Conservative party members shoulder a huge responsibility. The 140,000-odd grass roots are not only choosing a new leader, they are picking someone to lead Britain. But in doing so, Tories must recognise that voting for Brexit was not simply about immigration or sovereignty, it was a howl of pain from significant parts of the country that need help.
Aside from negotiating a new relationship with Brussels, the leadership contenders understand that British politics needs to change — we could all do with something less tribal and cliquey, more inclusive and, dare I say it, one nation. The three most plausible contenders will present their visions for Brexit Britain this week and all appear to understand the need to repair the gap between the rich and the poor.
Boris Johnson is easily the most intriguing candidate, as well as the most likely to win at this stage. The former London mayor is a political chameleon — over the years, he has been everything from a liberal metropolitan to hardline Eurosceptic. He will use this range to paint himself as the man to bring the Conservatives back together. From the environment secretary Amber Rudd on the Tory left, to David Davis on the right, he hopes to be the man to lead them all.
His biographer Andrew Gimson best summarised Mr Johnson’s beliefs as “Merry England conservatism”. This is not, crucially, being a Little Englander — he loves Europe and immigration, and was not afraid to say so during the brutal referendum. The Merry England Boris will probably adopt a softer tone than we have seen recently. His pitch will mix the clear and the evasive, delivering plenty of entertainment along the way. The country faces some dismal post-Brexit times and may need some cheerful leadership — his slogan could almost be “Make Britain Great Again”. But, he is a toff through and through, and Tories might feel it is time for a leader who is not an Old Etonian.
His most formidable challenger is Theresa May, the technocratic safe pair of hands. Her six successful years as home secretary are her greatest asset and she will pitch herself as the candidate who can sort out immigration and negotiate a tough deal with the EU, while keeping the show on the road. Unlike her fellow Bremainers, Ms May has long campaigned for lower migration and will make the case for tighter border controls.
If the economy begins to tank during the summer, Ms May can carefully point out that it was Boris who got us into this situation. Senior Tories who have been critical of her approach in the past now feel she will be a formidable candidate who can lead the party and the country. But her pitch needs to be carefully crafted: it needs to bring some warmth to her personality, as well as attracting the support of some big Brexit beasts.
And finally, on the New Modernisers blue-collar ticket we have Stephen Crabb, the work and pensions secretary, backed up by the business secretary Sajid Javid. If the Tories turn against “another toff!” and Ms May fails to make a convincing pitch, Mr Crabb would be a breath of fresh air. His leadership pitch was all about unity: he was a working class boy born in Scotland and raised in Wales. He will use his close friendship with Ruth Davidson, the popular Scottish Conservative party leader, to argue that he is the man to hold the union together.
Mr Crabb has a persuasive back-story — he was brought up on a council estate and worked on building sites during summer holidays. In his first campaign speech, he harked back to John Major’s leadership and attempted to capture the spirit that put an outsider into Downing Street in 1992. Although it will be interesting to watch Mr Crabb develop in this contest, it is hard to see him standing outside Downing Street on September 9.
There are other likely candidates with interesting pitches too — Liam Fox, Jeremy Hunt and Nicky Morgan. But Dr Fox is yesterday’s man and may eventually back one of the two frontrunners after securing a return to the cabinet. Mr Hunt’s proposal for a second EU referendum will not find much support in the Conservative party. And it is hard to fathom exactly why Ms Morgan is running.
Over the next few weeks, the popularity of these candidates will ebb and flow and Conservative MPs will vote every Tuesday and Thursday until we have a final two.
It is important that in the middle of debating a short-term plan for Britain, a vision to renew conservatism is also delivered. It was one of David Cameron’s weaknesses that he never managed to define this, although none of the contenders will move significantly away from his legacy. His successor must be able to bring both the party and country back together.