French economy grinds to a halt in second quarter

Financial Times Financial Times

july 29, 2016 7:50 am

France’s economy ground to a halt in the second quarter as households held off spending and companies delayed investment amid strikes that caused major disruptions, casting doubt over the pace of recovery less than nine months before presidential elections.

Gross domestic product stagnated in the three months to June, after a 0.7 per cent surge in the previous three months, according Insee, the French national statistical institute. Insee had expected 0.3 per cent growth in the second quarter.


François Hollande’s socialist government has struggled to rekindle growth in the eurozone’s second-largest economy despite granting more than €40bn in tax breaks to companies. The French leader is counting on 1.5 per cent GDP growth this year after four years of sluggish growth or near stagnation to help curb stubbornly high unemployment.

Michel Sapin, finance minister, said the second-quarter figure was “disappointing” but it would not effect the full-year prediction of 1.5 per cent growth for 2016.

“Beyond the quarter-to-quarter hiccups, the French economy stays on a recovery dynamic,” Mr Sapin said in a statement.

The minister said the stagnation was due to faster than expected first-quarter growth and “one-off effects including strikes in the refinery sector, “which weighed on production”.

Household spending, the traditional engine of the French economy, halted, after growing 1.2 per cent in the second quarter, according to Insee. And investment in the construction sector, which had started to pick up again in the first quarter, contracted. Investment in the manufactured goods and services sectors retreated. Imports declined 1.3 per cent after growing 0.5 per cent in the previous quarter. Exports slowed.

Perhaps more problematic for the government, the number of jobless picked up again in June 0.2 per cent, or 5,200 from May, according to figures released last week. Over six months however, the number of unemployed fell by 58,000.

Meanwhile, separate data from Madrid on Friday showed that Spain’s economic recovery continued in the second quarter, according to preliminary figures, albeit more slowly.

Figures from INE, the country’s national statistics bureau, showed GDP grew 0.7 per cent in the three months ending in June, down from 0.8 per cent during each of the previous three quarters. On an annualised basis, the economy grew 3.2 per cent, down from 3.4 per cent in the first quarter.

 Almost two-thirds of new jobs are temporary contracts

Although Spain’s strong economic recovery is expected to slow in coming years, Spain’s economy minister, Luis de Guindos on Sunday raised expectations for 2016, saying the economy would grow 2.9 per cent for the year, up from the 2.7 per cent previously forecast.

After years of economic crisis, Spain’s economy has begun to grow on the back of record tourism numbers. Spain’s unemployment rate — the second highest in Europe, behind Greece — has also begun to decline, dropping to 20 per cent according to data released by INE on Thursday. Buoyed by the tourism industry, the majority of new jobs created have been temporary positions.

While Spain’s economy has continued to grow, analysts suggest that its growth will be hurt by a Brexit-related EU slowdown and its inability to form a stable government. The country has held two inconclusive national elections in December and June, leaving it without a longterm government for the last eight months.

“Prior to the UK vote, we had assumed growth would remain solid in the near term, but lose momentum in an orderly manner in line with diminishing pent-up demand both at the household and consumer level,” said Raj Badiani, senior economist at IHS Global Insight. “However, economic and financial risks arising from the UK exit are set to trigger a sharper slowdown.”