Japan launches $45bn stimulus package

Financial Times Financial Times

August 2, 2016 9:28 am

Japan launches $45bn stimulus package

Shinzo Abe has launched a new ¥4.6tn ($45bn) fiscal stimulus as he seeks to boost a struggling Japanese economy by going back to the basics of his Abenomics programme.

Although Mr Abe proclaimed a total package of ¥28.1tn, the actual new government spending is ¥6.2tn of which ¥4.6tn — 0.9 per cent of gross domestic product — will fall in the current fiscal year.

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The package puts Japan at the forefront of a global shift away from austerity and back to looser fiscal policy as the world economy wrestles with sluggish growth and weak inflation.

Although the headline size of the package was lower than analysts’ consensus expectations, it should still be large enough to boost an economy that has been struggling with weak consumption and the drag on exports from a stronger yen.

At the heart of the package are measures to help pensioners and a plan to bring forward the completion of a maglev train line from Tokyo to Osaka by eight years using soft government loans.

“The key word is investment in the future,” said Mr Abe as he announced the decision in cabinet. He exhorted ministries to put the package into effect speedily.

The package includes ¥2.5tn in welfare spending, ¥1.7tn for infrastructure, ¥0.6tn for small and medium-sized businesses hit by “uncertainty due to Brexit”, and ¥2.7tn for reconstruction after an earthquake on the southern island of Kyushu earlier this year.

Few precise details are available, but the welfare spending include childcare subsidies, and a plan to distribute ¥15,000 ($147) to 22m low-income individuals, who are most likely to spend the money and boost the economy.

The stimulus comes after the Bank of Japan disappointed markets with a modest additional monetary stimulus last week, upping the pace of its stock market purchases to ¥6tn a year.

Taro Aso, finance minister, met with BoJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Tuesday evening to discuss the fiscal stimulus. Speaking to reporters afterwards, Mr Kuroda said there was “synergy between the stimulus measures and the accommodative financial environment”.

Government bond yields rose sharply in Tokyo with the 10-year yield close to positive territory for the first time since March.

Masamichi Adachi, senior economist at JPMorgan in Tokyo, said that investors went into last Friday’s BoJ meeting expecting a large easing. They were disappointed when the BoJ did nothing but boost stock market purchases.

Mr Kuroda also announced a “comprehensive review” of monetary policy to take place at the central bank’s next meeting in September. “There are basically two views in the market about what that means,” said Mr Adachi.

Mr Adachi thinks the review could lead to more stimulus. He takes Mr Kuroda at his word: the BoJ governor insists that the review is about how to reach 2 per cent inflation as fast as possible.

But other investors think the review means the BoJ will admit defeat and accept it will take longer for inflation to get to target. “Many Japanese bond investors think the comprehensive review means the BoJ is now facing a serious limit and it will step back and normalise to some degree,” Mr Adachi said.