August 4, 2016 7:27 am
Cypriot leaders have started to discuss security questions that will include Turkey’s military presence on the island, as they ramp up unification talks amid fears that Ankara’s political turmoil could threaten any final deal.UN-brokered talks between Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot leaders have been under way since May 2015. The two sides have made significant progress in areas such as political power-sharing and a mechanism for displaced people to resolve property disputes.
But negotiators are only now turning to sensitive questions around territorial exchanges and a Turkish military withdrawal.
As the talks enter this critical phase, last month’s failed coup in Turkey has prompted concern that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan might withhold backing for any eventual deal. Mr Erdogan has cracked down on the army since the attempted putsch by purging 3,000 officers, but military support would still be required to execute any Cypriot agreement.
Espen Barth Eide, UN special representative at the talks, said that he was following the events in Turkey “with great concern”, although he had not yet seen any change in Ankara’s supportive position.
He added: “I received assurances of their continued support over the past weeks. These events, however, remind us that the window for a settlement will not remain open forever.”
Cyprus has been divided along ethnic lines since Turkey invaded and occupied the northern third of the island in 1974, after a brief Greek-inspired coup that was aimed at uniting the island with Athens.
Turkey is the only country to recognise the breakaway Turkish Cypriot state and its blessing is required for any deal to work, not least because 40,000 Turkish troops are based on the island.
In recent days, Greek Cypriot leaders reiterated that they would not accept any settlement that allowed Turkish soldiers to remain in Cyprus or allowed Turkey to have any right of intervention in the island.
Mr Erdogan, who backed a failed UN plan in 2004 to unify the island, is perceived to personally favour a settlement. His recent efforts to defuse Turkey’s tensions with Russia and Israel have raised hopes that he would also promote a deal in Cyprus.
After the coup attempt, Ankara insisted it would continue to back the talks. But observers question whether the continuing political upheaval will make it more difficult for Mr Erdogan to approve an agreement, particularly if elements within the Turkish military oppose it.
“It might have changed Erdogan’s psychology,” said James Ker-Lindsay, a senior research fellow at the London School of Economics, who has written several books on Cyprus. “He’s invested in a solution but he’s not invested in Cyprus — that’s an important difference to draw. He’s in a very strong position. At the current stage, [a deal] is not going to harm him. It’s just that he wouldn’t want to be seen to be selling out [to the Greek Cypriots].”
Nicos Anastasiades, the Greek Cypriot president, and Mustafa Akinci, his Turkish Cypriot counterpart, are said to have established a close personal rapport in a series of talks. The current plan involves the establishment of two constituent states, along the lines of Germany’s federal system, which would run most of the island’s affairs.
“On balance the ingredients are still there and I still think the overall vibes are as positive as they’ve ever been,” said a European official who is closely following the talks.
Mr Eide said he was confident that “final agreements are in reach” on the first four topics covered in the talks: governance and power-sharing, property, the economy and EU relations.
But little progress was made when Mr Anastasiades and Mr Akinci discussed territory and security last Friday, the first formal talks on these matters since 2004. The two leaders are due to hold another seven meetings in the coming weeks and have pledged to reach an agreement this year
Any deal would have to go a referendum. The 2004 plan was supported by a majority of Turkish Cypriots in a referendum but rejected by Greek Cypriots.