Yen falls against dollar, with investors also focusing on Federal Reserve meeting
Stocks rose, the yen retreated and long-dated government bond yields rallied around the world Wednesday after Japan’s central bank affirmed its commitment to aggressive easing as it introduced a new monetary policy framework.
The Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.9% in morning trade, led by the banking sector, while futures pointed to a 0.4% opening gain for the S&P 500.
At the conclusion of its monetary policy review on Wednesday, the Bank of Japan introduced an interest-rate target for 10-year government bonds, committing to keep them around zero, and said it would continue quantitative easing until inflation “exceeds” 2%. It left its main interest rates unchanged.
“We think the commitment to overshooting the inflation target suggests that monetary easing will continue for longer than previously expected,” analysts at Standard Chartered wrote in a note.
The dollar rose sharply against the yen after the announcement but later pared gains to 0.2% at ¥101.7840, while 10-year Japanese government bond yields climbed into positive territory for the first time since March before falling back to trade at minus 0.026%.
Moves in Japanese bonds rippled overseas, as the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose to 1.700% from 1.687% Tuesday, while German 10-year yields returned to positive territory at 0.004%. Yields move inversely to prices.
Banks and insurance companies in Japan rallied amid relief the bank didn’t cut interest rates further into negative territory, as ultralow rates erode bank’s net interest margins. Many also hoped a steeper yield curve would boost bank profits. The Nikkei Stock Average jumped 1.9%, while the TOPIX banks sector jumped around 7%.
Bank stocks in Europe climbed 2% in early trading, while insurance companies rose 1.7%.
Still, some investors were skeptical the market moves, particularly the fall in the yen, would last. “When the dust settles, we think this will be seen as a disappointment,” said Adam Cole, currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets, noting the BOJ’s instruments ultimately remain little changed.
Investors were also focused on the Federal Reserve’s September monetary policy meeting later Wednesday. The central bank is scheduled to release its policy statement and updated summary of economic projections at 2 p.m. EDT, followed by a press conference with Chairwoman Janet Yellen at 2:30 p.m.
While few expect the bank to raise rates, any hints at a rise in December could call into question a steady rise in risky assets over the summer.
While a 25 basis point change to interest rates isn’t expected to in itself meaningfully alter the landscape for U.S. companies, “all risk assets are unusually sensitive to central bank actions right now,” said Niklas Nordenfelt, a portfolio manager at Wells Capital Management.
“High valuations in the equity market are supported by central banks more than actual earnings,” he said, noting expectations for little change from the Fed have underpinned the steadily rising, low volatility U.S. stock market this summer.