Poland sees US president as an ally as it clashes with EU neighbours

5 hours ago by: James Shotter in Warsaw

When transatlantic relations were at their nadir in the run-up to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the then US defence secretary Donald Rumsfeld ruffled feathers in the EU by labelling part of it as “old” Europe and drawing a contrast with its newer eastern states.

With Donald Trump due in Poland this week en route to what is likely to be a fractious G20 summit in Hamburg, European diplomats and analysts are wondering whether the US president will play on a similar divide when he gives what is being billed as a significant speech in Warsaw on Thursday.

Now, as in 2003, the US finds itself increasingly at odds with Germany and France — Mr Rumsfeld’s old Europe — on a range of issues. Having clashed with German chancellor Angela Merkel over her open-door policy for refugees and the German trade surplus, and sparred with France’s new president Emmanuel Macron over climate policy, Mr Trump is likely to receive a cool reception in Hamburg.

In Poland he is likely to receive a far warmer welcome. The ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) shares Mr Trump’s hostility towards accepting refugees, as well as his scepticism over multinational organisations.

Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the head of PiS who is widely regarded as Poland’s most influential politician, on Saturday hailed Mr Trump’s visit as a “new success” for the country.

A key reason for Mr Trump’s trip is to enhance energy and security co-operation with Poland. The country has started buying US liquefied natural gas in an effort to reduce its dependence on Russia, and the country has a close defence relationship with Washington. Mr Trump’s appearance in Warsaw may well spawn deals in both sectors. “The deals will follow,” says Piotr Wozniak, chief executive of Poland’s state-owned gas company, PGNiG.

But two aspects of Mr Trump’s visit have prompted speculation about his intentions. The first is that — as well as meeting Poland’s president Andrzej Duda — he will attend the Three Seas Summit, a forum pushed by Poland and Croatia that brings together 12 central and eastern European states, which some western diplomats see as an effort to counterbalance Franco-German leadership of the EU. For Europe it is important that messages can also be given from capitals like Warsaw, and not just Brussels or Berlin Krzysztof Szczerski, chief of Poish president Andrzej Duda’s cabinet

The second is the trip’s timing. Poland began lobbying for Mr Trump to visit last November, when Mr Duda called to congratulate him on his election victory. But the White House only announced the visit after Mr Trump’s first trip to Europe in May saw him clash repeatedly with Germany and France. This has prompted some observers to worry that Mr Trump could try to use his visit to Warsaw to show that, despite frayed relations with Berlin and Paris, he has allies elsewhere in the region.

“The question is why is Trump in Poland?“ says Wojciech Przybylski, editor-in-chief of Visegrad Insight. “The main interest is political communication. And the likelihood is that he will use this trip to show that he has supporters on the continent, despite the fact that Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron don’t like his chauvinism or the fact that he withdrew from the Paris climate agreement.” Related article Merkel, Trump, Xi and the contest for global leadership Uncertainty reigns as the task to identify the world’s kingpin comes into focus at G20

Krzysztof Szczerski, chief of Mr Duda’s cabinet, says Mr Trump’s visit is not meant to be an “antidote” to his previous visit to Europe, and should be seen in parallel with the G20. “In Hamburg he is meeting the economic superpowers, and in Warsaw the developing parts of Europe that need investment,” he says. e also argues that it is a sign of the growing clout of central and eastern European states within the EU. “For Europe it is important that important messages can also be given from capitals like Warsaw, and not just Brussels or Berlin,” he adds.

The centrepiece of Mr Trump’s visit will be his speech at Krasiński Square, which houses a monument to the 1944 Warsaw Uprising. Following Mr Trump’s conspicuous failure to reaffirm the US’s commitment to Nato’s Article 5 mutual defence clause in Brussels in May, Polish officials and diplomats are hoping he will do so in Warsaw. Mr Trump subsequently reaffirmed Article 5 when the Romanian president visited Washington. But a statement delivered from Nato’s eastern flank would carry added weight.

However, some analysts worry that if Mr Trump also uses his speech to criticise the EU it could leave Poland more isolated at a time when Mr Macron’s election has reinvigorated hopes for deeper eurozone integration.

In recent weeks, Poland has clashed repeatedly with Mr Macron’s government on the question of labour mobility within the EU. Its relations with Germany have also been difficult, with PiS vehemently critical of Ms Merkel’s refugee policies. The country is also locked in a dispute with Brussels over the rule of law.“If the speech is seen as divisive by the rest of Europe, that wouldn’t be good for Poland or the region, especially in the context of the Three Seas Initiative, which is meant to be about infrastructure, but which has gained a geo-political aspect through the attendance of the US president,” says Michal Baranowski, Warsaw director of the German Marshall Fund of the US.

“If he endorses the EU, that is fine. But if the speech is more along the lines of Donald Rumsfeld . . . that would not be good for Poland, especially given the divisions within Europe, and the development towards a multispeed union.”