RIGA, Latvia—When European Union leaders last sat down with their opposite numbers from six former Soviet republics in November 2013, their decisions set in train events that led to the ouster of then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, followed by Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
At the EU’s fourth Eastern Partnership summit in Latvia starting on Thursday, nobody is expecting such dramatic consequences. But the likely outcome is so low-key that some officials and experts worry that, far from reinforcing a message that the EU stands with its eastern neighbors in the face of Russian pressure, the summit could send the opposite signal.
Eighteen months ago in Vilnius, Mr. Yanukovych’s decision to abandon a trade and political deal with the EU sparked street protests in Kiev that eventually brought him down and led to Ukraine’s loss of Crimea and its conflict with Russian-backed separatists elsewhere.
The conflict has prompted caution inside the EU. Many governments fear doing anything to poke Russia into undermining the fragile cease-fire in eastern Ukraine, and are increasingly skeptical that they can drive democratic change among their eastern neighbors. The summit is therefore expected to be low in ambition and light on deliverables, diplomats say.
“The importance of the summit to the partner countries—particularly to Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, which have made European integration their foreign policy goal—cannot be underestimated,” said Amanda Paul, senior policy analyst at the European Policy Center. “If the summit turns out to be a nonevent it risks being perceived as rewarding the bullying policies of Russia.”
Officials say the talks between leaders from the EU and from Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Belarus, Armenia and Azerbaijan could easily be overshadowed by fresh wrangling inside the EU over the Greek bailout. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will meet the German and French leaders in Riga although a formal eurozone summit is being ruled out.
U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron may also use his first meeting with colleagues since the British election to start sounding out ideas on changes he hopes can win powers back from the EU.
Launched in 2009, the EU’s Eastern Partnership initiative sought to forge deep economic, political and people-to-people ties between the bloc and its six neighbors.
The project hit a turning point in late 2013 and early last year. Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova signed broad political and trade deals with the EU, sparking Russian retaliation. Armenia followed Belarus into the Russian-led Eurasia Economic Union while Azerbaijan maintained distance from both Moscow and Brussels.
Ahead of the summit, negotiations between the EU and the former Soviet republics have boiled down to two points: any mention in the summit declaration of a future path to EU membership for Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, and moves by Brussels to ease visa access.
At Vilnius, EU leaders “reaffirmed their acknowledgment” of the EU aspirations of some countries and offered to “support those who seek an ever closer relationship with the EU.”
Despite strong pressure this time from Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova, the draft statement to be presented to leaders avoids any new declaration on membership, diplomats said Wednesday night.
EU officials say there is no point re-airing an issue that is simply not on the bloc’s agenda for now. The EU’s executive has ruled out any expansion before 2020.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday that Moscow isn’t trying to impose decisions on its neighbors but opposes moves that “damage the legitimate interests” of Russia.
However, critics argue that without defining clear rewards for countries that are being asked to deliver painful domestic overhauls tied to last year’s trade agreements, the EU will jeopardize Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine’s western path.
“There is an urgent need to provide neighbors with a clear-cut road map so they know what awaits them at the end of the long and rather dark reform tunnel,” said Tobias Schumacher, chair in European Neighborhood Policy at the College of Europe.
On the visa front, EU officials say Ukraine and Georgia won’t win the visa-free access Moldovans were given last year until early 2016 at the earliest. Brussels says the two governments must implement measures to help ensure proper border controls and travel procedures. It appears unlikely EU leaders will specify any target date in the statement, diplomats said.
Still, EU officials insist the Eastern Partnership isn’t in its death throes. They point out that 25 of the 28 EU leaders will be in Riga, all but Spain, Luxembourg and Ireland.
They cite sharp growth in EU imports from Moldova and Georgia and closer energy ties. They point to the 500,000 Moldovans who entered the EU under its visa liberalization, EU investment and loan programs and coordination on justice, health and agriculture issues.
Officials say ties with Belarus are gradually thawing although President Alexander Lukashenko isn’t expected in Riga, and is set to be represented by his foreign minister.
They say upcoming talks on a new EU-Armenia agreement could set a model for future economic cooperation between the EU and Eurasian Union countries. Officials say that is all part of a new, differentiated approach seeking to structure ties around the needs and interests of their partners.
Yet Ojars Kalnins, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Latvian Parliament says it is clear that in contrast to the Vilnius summit, Riga will mark at best “small, step-by-step progress with individual countries.”