Economists React to the May Jobs Report: ‘Unambiguously Positive’

The Wall Street Journal The Wall Street Journal

U.S. employers added 280,000 jobs in May, the unemployment rate rose to 5.5% from April’s 5.4% as more Americans joined the workforce, and wages firmed. With the labor market showing signs of strength, all eyes are now on the Federal Reserve, which has pinned interest rates near zero since December 2008. Here’s what economists had to say Friday.

“Any doubts about lingering economic weakness in the second quarter, at least as it relates to the labor market, were certainly erased with the release of the May employment report….In addition to the stronger-than-expected headline figure, revisions to prior months were positive 32,000 but perhaps most importantly, the average hourly earnings number increased by 0.3%. As a result, the year-over-year change in earnings is now 2.3%, the highest level since it briefly ticked there in August 2013.”–Dan Greenhaus, chief strategist at BTIG

“Even if one holds a long-term capped growth/secular stagnation view as we do, there can be and indeed are some unambiguously positive economic data in the meantime.  Today’s payroll release was certainly one of them.” –Guy LeBas, managing director for fixed income strategy at Janney Montgomery Scott

“This 280,000 rise in May payroll jobs, combined with a 32,000 upward revisions to job growth in March and April, reinforces our view that the decline in real GDP in the first quarter was an aberration due mostly to temporary factors and statistical problems acknowledged by the [Bureau of Economic Analysis]….I expect real GDP growth to rebound to at least 3.0% per annum in the middle two quarters of this year on strength in consumer spending, residential and nonresidential (including public) construction and less drag from private energy investment and net exports.”  –Stu Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services

“We see this as a very strong report, and it provides strong affirmation that underlying strength in the economy is building as the recovery moves back on track, though it is yet to be fully reflected in the production data. In fact, despite the buoyancy in labor market activity our current tracking from second-quarter GDP is still a relatively subdued 1.5% to 2.0%, which will be woefully inadequate to move the Fed off the sidelines any time soon. That said, the strength in labor market activity and the firming underlying fundamentals suggest that a turn in economic activity may just be around the corner–though this is unlikely to come soon enough to justify rate hike before September.” –Millan Mulraine, deputy head of U.S. strategy at TD Securities

Although wages grew 0.3% in April, LPL Financial’s John Canally says the Federal Reserve will need to see more growth before considering a rate increase.

“I’m not sure that we’d wave the all-clear flag, but certainly the clouds that may have been covering the view are getting thinner. We’ve been puzzled so far this year by the persistently strong results from labor markets and the persistently modest results from consumption. A reconciliation over time has to take place. This morning’s results lead me to suspect that it’s the consumption numbers that should rise to meet the very strong labor market trends and not the other way around.” –Carl Tannenbaum, chief economist for Northern Trust

“For [a] data-dependent [Federal Reserve], June 16-17 will be ‘live’ in regard to consideration of a rate hike. I’m not saying it’s [greater than] 50% probability, but it’s more likely than it was 24 hours ago, and the rationale of cumulative improvement in the labor market is firmly supported.” –Alan Levenson, chief U.S. economist at T. Rowe Price

“Overall, at this stage this evident strength in the labor market probably isn’t enough to persuade the Fed to hike rates by July, but it definitely makes a rate cut by September probable. Only 24 hours later, the IMF’s suggestion that the Fed should wait until 2016 looks very dated.” –Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist, Capital Economics

“Hourly earnings are on the move, and, over the past 30 years, nothing has been more closely correlated with Fed action than wage gains. They will continue to accelerate, following the surge in the ECI, and if the Fed does not begin to raise rates very soon, markets will soon be pointing out to policy makers that they are behind the economy. If the June employment report is as strong as this one, a July hike can’t be ruled out; if not then, we think September is the latest the Fed can dare to leave policy set for the end of the world.” –Ian Shepherdson, chief economist, Pantheon Macroeconomics

Today’s data keep a September first rate hike firmly in play, which remains our baseline for Federal Open Market Committee liftoff. Despite shocks hitting the economy, progress in the labor market is continuing, and this gives us confidence that growth in the second half will be robust.” –U.S. economics team at BNP Paribas

“This is a strong jobs report and should act as a clear counter to arguments that the economy has lost momentum.  We still do not see the Fed in play in June (and the slight rise in the unemployment rate gives the Fed some cover on that score) but with the jobs market displaying strong momentum and with core inflation rates fairly steady, we firmly expect the Fed to lift rates at the September FOMC meeting.” –John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros, economists at RDQ Economics

“In short, a strong report. The exception was the rise in the unemployment rate, but related details were strong. Even average hourly earnings showed some strength. Payrolls gains have averaged 217,000 so far this year, which is down from 260,000 in all of 2014 but it is still more than strong enough to keep the unemployment rate declining over time–it is 1.9% at an annual rate. Labor force growth is unlikely to exceed 1% this year. This report will keep the Fed on track for tightening this year.  We believe it helps the case for moving at the September meeting; there will be three more employment reports between now and then.” –– Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics