Europe firm amid Greece and US jobs caution

Financial Times Financial Times

Last updated: July 2, 2015 8:43 am

 

Thursday 08:00 BST. Stock benchmarks are mostly firmer, Treasury yields are nudging higher and the euro is a touch firmer amid cautious trading as investors consider US jobs, Greek debt and Chinese bears.

After a generally upbeat Asian session the pan-European FTSE Eurofirst 300 is adding 0.2 per cent, while US index futures indicate the S&P 500 will add just 2 points to 2,079.4.


But before Wall Street opens for business, investors will receive an important guide to the health of the world’s biggest economy, the non-farm payrolls report.

Analysts forecast a net 230,000 jobs were created in June and that the unemployment rate eased from 5.5 per cent in May to 5.4 per cent.

Average hourly earnings are predicted to grow 0.2 per cent, a datapoint that Citi says could be the “key component, since a rise could have a more powerful impact on the thinking of the Fed than just another strong payroll number”.

Evidence of building wage inflation is likely to cement expectations the central bank will start raising interest rates in September.

In the meantime, the dollar index is 0.1 per cent softer at 96.2, sitting about 4 per cent shy of its 12-year high touched in March, while 10-year Treasury yields are up 1 basis point to 2.43 per cent.

Equivalent maturity German Bund yields are up 3bp to 0.85 per cent even as investors remain wary about whether Greek voters will back a “cash for reforms” deal with creditors in a referendum on Sunday.

Concerns linger that a No vote may put the heavily-indebted Mediterranean nation out of the eurozone, hitting sentiment on the continent and crimping its fragile economic recovery.

The euro is proving phlegmatic, adding 0.2 per cent to $1.1068, but there are mild signs of contagion in the bloc’s bond market, with yields on Spanish and Italian paper up several basis points apiece.

Still, recent Greece-linked volatility in European markets is nothing compared with the shellacking meted out to Chinese equities of late.

A surging bull run that saw the stock market more than double in less than 12 months, and which took it to a seven-year high in mid-June, has crumbled spectacularly.

The authorities seemingly have tried to reverse some of the regulatory restrictions that many think caused the snapping of bullish sentiment.

After markets closed on Wednesday the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, as well as China Securities Depository and Clearing, said stock transaction fees would be cut by nearly a third, effective August 1, in an effort to boost liquidity.

Additionally, the China Securities Regulatory Commission said it would move forward the implementation of rules that relax restrictions on margin trading, a step that could reduce pressure from forced selling brought on by margin calls.

But the moves have failed to stem the selling. The Shanghai Composite is off 4.4 per cent, falling deep into a bear market having now lost a quarter of its value in just three weeks.

Luckily for global investors, the Chinese market is pretty much detached. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is up 0.1 per cent and Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1 per cent.

Kevin Ferriter, Capital Economics economist, noted that equities in emerging market countries also have not performed poorly since Chinese shares began their slide.

“Even if China’s mainland stock markets continue to fall, which is far from certain, we think the impact on equities in other emerging market countries is likely to continue to be quite small,” he said.

And there is little sign of contagion in assets that tend to display sensitivity to China’s economic prospects. Base metals are mostly slightly firmer, while the Australian dollar is slipping just 0.2 per cent to US$0.7627.

Brent crude is up 0.4 per cent to $62.27 a barrel, recovering a portion of the 2.5 per cent lost on Wednesday after US stockpiles rose for the first time in two months.

Gold is down $3 to $1,165 an ounce.