Hilsenrath Analysis: Jobs Report Keeps Fed on Track for 2015 Rate Increase

The Wall Street Journal The Wall Street Journal

The Labor Department‘s June employment report, released Thursday, broadly confirmed the Federal Reserve‘s narrative about how the U.S. economic expansion is unfolding in 2015, keeping the central bank on track to raise short-term interest rates later this year, barring some new setback.

The economy stumbled in the first quarter due to one-time shocks including bad weather, port shutdowns on the West Coast, statistical mismeasurement, a sharp drop in the price of oil, and increases in the value of the dollar. As Fed officials see it, the economy regained its footing in the second quarter, setting the stage for more robust growth in the second half of the year, continued improvement in the labor market, firming of U.S. consumer prices and at least one increase in the central bank’s short-term interest rate before year-end, possibly as early as September.

Still, there were enough soft undercurrents in the report to keep Fed officials comfortable that they don’t need to hurry to raise rates and that once they start they can proceed gradually. Fed officials are split on whether to move once or twice in 2015, and the latest report appears unlikely to resolve that debate.

A steady stream of Fed officials have said since their June policy meeting that a September rate increase is on the table. Still, after Thursday’s jobs report, traders in futures markets lowered the odds on a move by then.

June marked the 57th consecutive month of U.S. job gains, the longest stretch on record. However, the pace of payroll expansion has slowed. Employers have added an average 208,000 jobs a month, down from last year’s monthly average of 260,000. Moreover, wage growth is tepid. Average hourly earnings of private sector workers in June were $24.95, unchanged from the previous month and up 2% from a year earlier. While some other metrics of wage growth and unit labor costs have shown signs of picking up, the hourly earnings measure hasn’t.

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen has said wage growth isn’t a prerequisite to short-term interest rate increases. It is possible inflation could start rising even without much wage growth. But in the absence of evidence of a pickup in either inflation or wages, Fed officials could conclude they have room to proceed with caution.

The next step for the central bank is affirming that financial turbulence overseas–including Greece and China–doesn’t spillover to hurt the U.S. economy. If Greece’s government debt default this week leads to a weakened euro, that could pinch U.S. exports and put further downward pressure on U.S. inflation, giving the Fed pause as it considers when to raise its benchmark short-term interest rate from near zero. Moreover global financial strains could undermine confidence among banks and businesses, further crimping investment and growth. Stock volatility and an economic slowdown in China compound the Fed’s global worries.

Fed officials will want to take the time between now and their September policy meeting to see whether these threats will pass.