What Donald Trump Might Do for Working-Class Families

The New Tork Times The New Tork Times

Among the rare areas of agreement in the aftermath of a contentious presidential election: Families with working parents, especially those with lower incomes, are having too hard a time.

Many can no longer count on lives that look like the ones their parents led. High-paying manufacturing jobs have been disappearing, especially for men. Fewer people are marrying, and more children are growing up in unstable families. Parents are struggling to work while raising children.

President-elect Donald J. Trump vowed to help the working class, and blue-collar whites in particular helped propel him to victory. Although quite a few economists disagree with him on the merits of his prescriptions, he has said cutting taxes, restricting immigration and renegotiating trade deals will ultimately raise incomes of struggling families.

His daughter Ivanka has pushed ideas like paid leave and seems to be taking a role in devising new policies. In a statement last week, she said she was distancing herself from certain aspects of her company in order to “broaden her efforts to take a stance on issues of critical importance to American women and families.”

Which policies will Mr. Trump pursue to directly address the needs of working and working-class families? A look at what he has said — along with the wish lists of Republicans in Congress, scholars and advisers — provides some clues.

Paid Maternity Leave

A striking thing happened during the campaign: For the first time, both Republican and Democratic candidates made paid family leave a part of their policy agenda. As recently as 2014, Hillary Clinton said of paid leave, “I don’t think, politically, we could get it now.” Now it could find bipartisan support.

Mr. Trump has proposed six weeks of paid maternity leave, which he said would offer “a crucial safety net for working mothers.” Currently, 87 percent of workers get no paid family leave, and 95 percent of those in the lowest quarter of earners get none, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Most Americans support a paid leave policy. It can ease the burdens on families with two working parents and increase the likelihood that parents stay in the labor force. Still, the details could prove contentious. Should fathers also get leave, or just mothers? What about gay or adoptive parents, and people who need to care for sick children or aging relatives? And how should it be paid for?

Mr. Trump’s proposal would apply only to new mothers, and he said he would pay for it with savings from reducing unemployment insurance fraud, though it’s unclear how that would work.

The Family Act, a Democrat-sponsored bill stalled in Congress, proposes paying for it with a small increase in payroll taxes. Republicans have previously proposed giving businesses a tax credit for providing paid leave, but making it voluntary.

“If he structures it in a way that it’s not a burden on businesses and does not work against women’s work force participation, I think more Republicans will get behind it,” said Aparna Mathur, a resident scholar in economic policy at the American Enterprise Institute.

Democrats have argued that by limiting parental leave to new mothers, Mr. Trump ignores the role fathers play in raising children, exposes women to discrimination in hiring and neglects the needs of people with ailing or elderly family members.

“It was fantastic to see the Republicans stepping up and having this debate,” said Heather Boushey, the executive director of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, who was the chief economist for Hillary Clinton’s transition team. “It really spoke to how important these issues are in terms of economic policy. But I hope that the actual policies are really grounded more in the evidence of what works than what he’s put out so far.”

Another policy that analysts say is important to working-class families is paid sick leave, so that workers can care for themselves or for ill family members. It’s unclear whether Mr. Trump will push for it. Thirty-five percent of workers over all and 66 percent of those in the bottom quartile of income get no paid sick leave. Some Republicans have instead proposed letting certain workers — those in the private sector who are not exempt from overtime laws — substitute time off for overtime pay.

Child Care

Another Democratic dream that Mr. Trump raised on the campaign trail was financial help for child care.

“For many families in our country, child care is now the single largest expense, even more than housing, yet very little meaningful policy work has been done in this area,” he said in September.

His proposal would allow parents earning less than $250,000 individually or $500,000 jointly to deduct the average cost of child and elder care from their income taxes. In a nod to social conservatives, he said parents who stayed home with children would also get the child care tax deduction.

“The idea here is letting the family choose how the money is spent,” said Bradford Wilcox, director of the national marriage project at the University of Virginia.

For low-income families, Mr. Trump proposed child care spending rebates as part of the earned-income tax credit. He also said he would make pretax dependent care savings accounts available to everyone, not just people whose employers offer them, and give tax deductions to employers that offer on-site child care.

Democrats have favored refundable tax credits over deductions because they say they are more helpful to lower-income families, who might not make enough to pay income taxes. Also, credits directly reduce someone’s tax bill, while deductions reduce taxable income but not necessarily the final bill.

Democrats see the ultimate goal as high-quality, universal care for young children. There seems to be bipartisan support for a small step in that direction.

“What we’ve got there is a tremendous amount of support from women — Democrats, Republicans, independents — to move forward,” said Representative Marsha Blackburn, a Republican from Tennessee.

Apprenticeships

Mr. Trump has pledged to create 25 million jobs over the next decade. Analysts and policy makers on both sides of the aisle say one route toward that goal is apprenticeships.

They are viewed as a way for people to acquire vocational skills while earning money, as opposed to attending college and building up debt. Not only would they address unemployment among people without college degrees, advocates say, but they could also lead to more stable families.

The unemployment of working-class men has been a prime reason for the decline in marriage and rise in single motherhood, researchers have found. When job opportunities are plentiful, people are more likely to marry before having their first child, Andrew Cherlin, a professor of public policy at Johns Hopkins, found in a study published in August in the American Sociological Review.

“It’s likely if we can improve the job picture for working-class young adults, they’d have family lives that are more stable,” he said.

The construction industry already uses apprentices, so perhaps Mr. Trump is familiar with their benefits, said Robert I. Lerman, a fellow at the Urban Institute. They would be possible in a range of fast-growing industries, like health care and information technology, he said, and in white-collar jobs like hotel management. They could also be useful in putting people to work building the new infrastructure that Mr. Trump has promised.

“People want to have earnings, they want to have dignity, they want to show that they’ve been able to master a certain profession, and that gives them a kind of identity,” Mr. Lerman said. “It has both a social as well as an economic dimension.”

Though the idea has received bipartisan support, some Republicans have resisted registered apprenticeships, which are overseen by the Labor Department, because of their association with unions. Some Democrats have questioned whether apprenticeships lead to a two-tier wage system, and have focused instead on making college accessible to more people.

Policy makers and researchers have a long list of other policy ideas for Mr. Trump that they believe could help blue-collar families. Some have historically appealed to Republicans, like those that encourage marriage. Others, like mandating predictable work schedules for hourly workers, have been promoted by Democrats.

With both parties fighting even more for the allegiance of the working class, there actually might be some movement on some or all of these issues.