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What E.U. Leaders Are Wrestling With at the End of a Tough Year

The New Tork Times The New Tork Times

By JAMES KANTER

BRUSSELS — The European Union has had a rough year, buffeted by terrorism, “Brexit,” far-right populism and lethargic growth, and leaders of its member states were tiptoeing through a geopolitical minefield on Thursday during their end-of-year summit meeting in Brussels. The migration crisis has abated, but only slightly, and collective decision-making is harder than ever. Referendums, like Britain’s June 23 vote to leave the European Union and Italy’s Dec. 4 decision to reject constitutional changes, have made life harder for democratically elected leaders. The war in Syria, aggression and meddling by Russia and the election of Donald J. Trump as the United States president have added to the complexity.

Here is a guide to some of the thorniest questions leaders face:

Will sanctions against Russia be maintained?

For now, yes. As expected, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and President François Hollande of France recommended the renewal of penalties against Russia — stemming largely from its 2014 intervention in Ukraine and annexation of Crimea — for six months. Formal approval should follow before the New Year. The thornier issue is whether the European Union can preserve a united front if the Trump administration relaxes American sanctions as part of reconciliation with Moscow. Italy has already warned that the policy damages its exporters, and that view could gain ground, particularly if Mr. Trump becomes close to Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin.

“It’s still too early to assess responsibly what is the possible policy of the new American administration to Russia — we have too many signals,” Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, the body that represents national leaders, said after the summit meeting. “We have to wait for a formal declaration of the new president.”

European leaders also warned Syria and Russia that they were “considering all available options” to address breaches of international law and possible war crimes in Syria. But with the battle for the besieged city of Aleppo possibly nearing its end, the prospects for stanching the bloodshed remain dim.

Does Europe still support Ukraine?

The European Union signed a free-trade deal with Ukraine nearly three years ago after an uprising that overthrew Ukraine’s Russian-backed president — paving the way to greater economic integration as Ukraine is trying to fend off Russian encroachment.

But in April, Dutch voters, in a referendum Prime Minister Mark Rutte felt compelled to call, rejected the pact. The vote was nonbinding, but it was a sharp protest vote, reflecting impatience with corruption and the slowness of overhauls in Ukraine. Geert Wilders, the far-right, euroskeptic Dutch populist, has signaled his opposition to the trade deal. To help Mr. Rutte quell the opposition he faces, the other 27 leaders in the bloc on Thursday clarified that the pact does not make Ukraine a candidate to join the European Union or commit the bloc to come to Ukraine’s defense.

Mr. Rutte told reporters after the summit that he would do his utmost to deliver Dutch parliamentary approval for the trade pact.

Will the E.U. create an army?

Not anytime soon. But leaders will push forward with plans strongly backed by France and Germany to allow Europe “to act autonomously when and where necessary” to ensure its security. That is a hot-button issue, since Mr. Trump has questioned whether the United States would automatically defend its NATO allies if they came under attack. (Most European Union countries are members of NATO, and vice versa.)

On Thursday, leaders are expected to endorse a plan that could involve spending 5.5 billion euros a year, or about $5.7 billion, to help governments bolster their military capacities. But countries including Britain, Lithuania and Poland are wary of any steps that duplicate the work of NATO. Other countries are also skeptical. Ireland, for example, is committed by its Constitution to military neutrality, and Cyprus is leery of Turkey, a NATO member that has occupied the northern half of the island since 1974.

Are membership talks with Turkey over?

The talks were supposed to get a new start under the terms of a deal this year for Turkey to help the European Union to manage the influx of migrants, many from Syria. The talks have been at a standstill since a failed military coup in Turkey in July, which set off a ferocious crackdown against soldiers, civil servants, police officers, judges and other groups. Austria and the European Parliament want a formal freeze to the negotiations. Leaders preserved on Thursday a formal commitment to keep talking with Turkey, even if not much of substance is achieved.

That is likely to include a summit between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey and top European Union officials sometime after March.

What about migrants?

Although Turkey has helped clamp down on the flow of migrants entering the European Union via Greece, many desperate people, mainly Africans, are turning to boats crossing the Mediterranean Sea to reach Italy. To reduce deaths at sea and deal a blow to smugglers, European leaders agreed on Thursday to support a nascent European Border and Coast Guard and to continue support for the Libyan Coast Guard. Leaders also agreed to seek ways to expand a system of granting aid to countries outside the bloc in return for their agreement to take back migrants; similar deals are in place with Ethiopia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria and Senegal.

And ‘Brexit’?

The British government is expected to start the formal process for leaving the European Union before the end of March. The process is supposed to take two years, but it could drag on much longer. With anti-European politicians in France and the Netherlands riding high in the polls ahead of elections in those countries in 2017, fears that the bloc might unravel are widespread.

Theresa May, the British prime minister, left the summit meeting on Thursday night to allow the remaining 27 leaders to discuss, over dinner, their strategy for staying united. They also completed their first order of business: agreeing to allow the European Commission, the bloc’s executive body, to lead the negotiations once Mrs. May formally starts the exit process. That puts Michel Barnier, a former French foreign minister and European commissioner, effectively in charge of the talks with London. To placate concerns among some member states that Mr. Barnier will be too inflexible, the leaders also agreed to a structure to monitor those discussions.

Might Greece leave the bloc, too?

Not likely. It is — once again — in open conflict with creditors, who refused on Wednesday to grant the country some modest relief on its towering debt. That could be part of a looming economic crisis for the bloc, which is already contending with the shaky state of Italy’s banks. But there is little sense of panic about a possible departure from the eurozone, as there was 18 months ago.

“I will have the opportunity to talk with many of my peers,” Alexis Tsipras, the Greek prime minister, told reporters in Brussels before Thursday’s meeting. “I believe we can have a solution without blackmail and with respect for each country’s sovereignty,” he said.

After the summit Mrs. Merkel said she planned to raise the issue of Greece’s latest spending plans, which have prompted criticism from lenders, with Mr. Tsipras on Friday in Berlin.