TWO events mark South Korean calendars this week: the release of a new album by PSY, and a snap presidential election on May 9th. Moon Jae-in, the candidate who is almost certain to win it, is hardly the “New Face” that South Korea’s best-known rapper is referring to in his title song, which is meant to reflect the national mood. Mr Moon narrowly lost to Park Geun-hye, the impeached South Korean leader he would replace, in elections in 2012. He has led the polls for four months, with a lead of more than 20 percentage points on the next candidate. His victory seems assured, as does the fate of Ms Park: she is in jail and currently on trial on corruption charges, including abuse of power and bribery. So why does this election matter?

The early election is an unusual one. It comes after the permanent removal of Ms Park in March by South Korea’s constitutional court, which upheld a parliamentary vote to impeach her. Expectations are high for her successor, who will begin a full five-year term, to provide steady political leadership after five months under a caretaker government. Voters also expect whoever succeeds Ms Park to be more receptive and personable than her: many see her as a political princess who was out of touch with her people. The million-strong protests against her were also symptomatic of a broader malaise, especially among South Korea’s young: they are twice as likely to be unemployed as the average South Korean. Many young Koreans feel that the system is corrupt, and rigged in favour of the rich and powerful. Mr Moon promises a new style of politics. He says he would no longer rule from the official presidential residence, which is known as the Blue House (he says he would it turn into a public museum).

Moreover, the region is in a state of flux: tensions are rising between North Korea and America; China, South Korea’s main economic partner, is bullying it over its installation of an American anti-missile defence system known as THAAD. Mr Moon, who would be the first liberal to come to power in almost a decade, has said he would review that deal, as well as a landmark agreement between South Korea and Japan, signed in 2015 by Ms Park, concerning its treatment of Korean wartime sex slaves.

Early-voting numbers suggest this election will break domestic turnout records; a recent survey by the National Election Commission found that close to 90% of citizens said they would “definitely” vote. Yet whoever wins office among the 13 candidates running is unlikely to do so with a large popular mandate: presidential elections in South Korea consist of just one round, with no minimum threshold for victory. The next president will come to power on the back of the smooth impeachment of a corrupt leader: a celebration for South Korea’s young democracy, as it turns 30 this year. But he will also need to make good on expected promises for deeper reform. His mandate for that, at least, is substantial.