French economy grinds to a halt as German GDP data disappoint

Financial Times Financial Times

August 14, 2015

France’s economy ground to a halt in the second quarter as consumers put the brakes on spending, undermining President François Hollande’s attempts to rekindle growth in the eurozone’s second-largest economy.

Measured on a quarter-on-quarter basis the economy stagnated in the three month to June, according to data compiled by Insee, the national statistical institute. The figure missed expectations of 0.2 per cent growth. Gross domestic product had advanced 0.7 per cent in the first quarter, an upwards revision from the originally stated 0.6 per cent.

The French economy grew 1 per cent year on year, according to Friday’s figures, having been expected to grow 1.1 per cent. However this was the fastest pace recorded since the last three months of 2013, pointing to a slow recovery after three years of stagnation.

Meanwhile, Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, recorded expansion of 0.4 per cent between the first and second quarters, with the latest fears over the global economy failing to dent demand for the country’s exports.

However, while growth was up slightly from 0.3 per cent in the opening three months of the year, the figure dashed expectations of a stronger expansion and capped a disappointing morning for the eurozone’s core economies.

The German economy, which provides around 30 per cent of the eurozone’s output, grew after the weaker euro boosted exports sales. Despite economic turbulence in Greece and China clouding the global outlook, the statistical office said figures for exports of goods were particularly strong compared with the previous quarter.

“The eurozone powerhouse has successfully defied external turbulences,” said Carsten Brzeski, economist at ING-DiBa. “Nevertheless, not all that glitters is gold. The fact that record low interest rates, low energy prices and the weak euro have not led to a stronger expansion in our view shows that the German economy has simply reached the end of its long positive virtuous circle of structural reforms and growth.”

Mr Brzeski added: “Normally, such a cocktail of strong external steroids should have given wings to the economy. This is not the case.”

Both household and government expenditure rose, though investment remained weak — especially in the construction sector.

Commenting on the French GDP figure, Philippe Waechter, head of research at Natixis Asset Management, said: “Domestic demand has been supported by state spending, that’s problematic. France is struggling to restore robust and lasting growth.”

French consumer spending, which had increased 0.9 per cent earlier this year, expanded only 0.1 per cent in the second quarter, after households cut on their energy bill.

Capital spending contracted 0.3 per cent in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, after remaining stable in the first three months of the year, despite tax breaks and measures introduced by the socialist government to boost investment. Manufacturing output shrunk 0.7 per cent, after a 1.3 per cent growth in the first quarter.

Imports stagnated after a 2.2 per cent rebound in the first quarter, but exports benefited from a lower euro — accelerating 1.7 per cent, after a 1.3 per cent growth in the first three months of the year.

Mr Hollande has struggled to revive growth, a necessary condition to lower record unemployment of more than 10 per cent of the workforce. The French socialist president has hinged his decision to run for re-election in 2017 on a significant decrease in the number of jobless next year.

The government, which expects gross domestic product to grow more than 1 per cent this year — Manuel Valls, prime minister, even hinted he hoped for 1.5 per cent — has responded by pushing through business-friendly measures, including €40bn in tax breaks over three years.

Mr Hollande has also championed measures for small and medium-sized companies, while also committing to €50bn in public spending cuts by 2017, when the presidential elections take place.

Italy’s recovery also lost its drive in the second quarter of the year GDP grew by 0.2 per cent, in line with the consensus estimate and leaving only small margins to the ruling coalition government for the next budgetary plan, expected in September.

According to Istat, the national statistics institute, GDP in the second three months of the year rose by 0.5 per cent with respect to the same period in 2014. It gave no numerical breakdown of the GDP components, though it specified that the agricultural sector contracted while the services one expanded.

In the first three months of the year the eurozone’s third largest economy emerged from almost three years of stagnation and recession, with a 0.3 per cent growth, the first since September 2013.

The Bank of Italy, like the IMF, expects the country to return to growth for the first time in four years, with GDP rising by 0.7 per cent in 2015, after contracting by 0.4 last year.