After watching Congress repeatedly crash into fiscal deadlines in recent years, a majority of economists are expecting a repeat performance, with 55% of respondents to the latest Wall Street Journal survey of 62 economists—not all of whom answered every question—predicting at least some disruption to the economy and financial markets in the months ahead.

“Let’s face it, we seem to be going down to the wire yet again,” said Michael Gregory, head of U.S. economics for BMO Capital Markets, one of the 22 primary dealers authorized to bid directly at Treasury auctions and trade with the Federal Reserve.

The Treasury Department reached its statutory borrowing limit in March. To avoid running over the debt ceiling it has resorted to tactics like halting certain pension investments to free up enough funds to keep the government running. The Treasury has said it will have room to maneuver until at least October, while analysts at the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office and Bipartisan Policy Center, a think tank, estimate it will run out of funds late in the fourth quarter.

The deadline happens to coincide with the beginning of the federal government’s fiscal year in October, which is when Congress must approve a budget. If legislators reach an impasse, as they have in the past, the government could be forced to close.

In 2011, the Treasury came within days of running out of funds when Congress didn’t act on the debt ceiling and for the first time ever Standard & Poor’s downgraded the U.S. triple-A credit rating. In October of 2013, the government shut down for over two weeks when lawmakers were unable to pass legislation to keep it open.

These past congressional stalemates and showdowns have forced economists to pay close attention to political maneuvering. About 77% of economists in the survey believe these clashes have dragged the economy down in recent years, including 14% who believe that fiscal uncertainty has been one of the primary reasons that the U.S. economy has grown so slowly since the end of recession.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) has vowed that “we’re not doing government shutdowns,” even though his party’s conservative wing has threatened extreme measures unless Planned Parenthood is cut off from funding. Presidential candidates like Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R., Texas) have signed a letter saying the party should defund Planned Parenthood even if it leads to a government shutdown.

Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. economist of High Frequency Economics, a forecasting firm in Valhalla, N.Y., said the past episodes have damaged the economy by harming consumer confidence.

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“But to some extent people have become immune to the threat,” he said. “At the end of the day, the recovery continued and unemployment has continued to trend down.”

Throughout the recovery, economists have repeatedly trimmed their forecasts for growth. They now expect 2.2% growth over the course of 2015, according to the survey’s average. That’s unchanged from last month but down from an estimate of 2.9% a year ago. Their average forecast calls for unemployment to continue to fall, reaching 5.1% at the end of this year and 4.8% at the end of 2016. That’s also unchanged from recent months.

A decline in oil prices in recent weeks caused forecasts of inflation to fall. By December, consumer prices will be rising at a 1.1% pace, down from an estimate of 1.3% in last month’s survey.

Despite low inflation and fiscal risks, survey respondents overwhelmingly expect the Federal Reserve in September to raise its interest-rate target. The central bank has held the fed funds rate near zero since December of 2008.

“The Fed wants to move,” said Adolfo Laurenti, chief international economist at Mesirow Financial, a financial services firm and investment manager in Chicago. “They want to show that we are not in an emergency anymore.”

Economists broadly agree the U.S. isn’t on the precipice of crisis. They estimate the risk of a recession in the next 12 months as only about 10%. While fretting about the coming fiscal debate, economists assign less than a 2% chance to the U.S. actually defaulting on its debt because lawmakers have repeatedly walked up to the brink only to pull back again.

“There will be some posturing, but I don’t think we are going to have a self-inflicted wound or crisis coming up in the fall,” said Mr. Laurenti.