In the short term, fighters were instead directed to travel to the group’s main battleground in Iraq and Syria, where IS controls a swathe of land. Unlike al-Qaeda, which specialised in attacking the « far enemy » in America and Europe, IS focused on building and fighting for its “caliphate” in Iraq and Syria, and in acquiring affiliates elsewhere in the Middle East as states collapsed or frayed. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the group’s leader, was never part of the global jihad movement and indeed is thought not to have travelled outside Iraq and Syria.

But the carnage in Paris on November 13th and a recent spate of earlier attacks claimed by IS may indicate a change in strategy; these include two bombings in Beirut on November 12th and the explosion that brought down a Russian aeroplane in Egypt on October 31st (a bombing in Ankara that killed more than 100 people in Ankara on October 10th was attributed to IS but not claimed by it). Officials in America and Europe say the attackers in Paris communicated with the central leadership of IS in Syria prior to the attacks. Iraqi officials say their government passed on a warning about an imminent assault by the group on Western countries (some say it explicitly mentioned France). François Hollande, the French president, has declared that the massacre « was prepared, organised and planned from abroad ». If the central leadership of IS directed the attacks it would represent an escalation for the group, which to this point has more often acted as the inspiration, rather than the instigator, of violence against Western targets. The question, then, is why?

To believe IS, the attacks are retribution for Western airstrikes against it in Iraq and Syria, where the group is under pressure. Kurdish Peshmerga fighters, with the help of those airstrikes, have retaken the town of Sinjar in north-west Iraq, threatening the supply lines between the group’s two main bastions, Raqqa in Syria and Mosul in Iraq. The Iraqi army has encircled IS-held Ramadi, west of Baghdad. And on November 12th a strike by an American drone probably killed Mohammed Emwazi, the IS executioner dubbed « Jihadi John ».

For IS, spectacular attacks abroad may now seem like the most effective way of fighting back and deterring deeper involvement by outside forces, whether it be Russia’s recent intervention in Syria or France’s more longstanding engagement. The attacks on Western targets may also represent a form of armed propaganda. As IS is weakened at home, the group may be looking to save face and project strength in any way it can. If deterrence is the goal, however, it is likely to be counterproductive. Western governments are promising to step up their fight against IS. French warplanes have already struck IS militants in Syria in response to massacre in Paris.

Whatever the proximate cause of this apparent shift in strategy, it is perhaps best to think of it as a character trait that is finally manifesting itself. Although most of the group’s rhetoric is aimed at local enemies in the Middle East, there have long been calls for conquest in the West by the group’s leaders and in its publications. « You haven’t seen anything from us just yet, » said Mr Adnani, referring to the West, at the beginning of the year. The fear is that as the group comes under more pressure at home, it may lash out even more regularly abroad, choosing the soft targets of Western cities to create the biggest headlines.