FOR Europeans, 2016 will start with a sweet helping of news that will leave a bitter aftertaste. In February statisticans will reveal that, in late 2015, the euro-area’s GDP surpassed its previous peak—before both the financial and euro crises—in early 2008. This will happen if the currency club’s economy expands in the second half of 2015 at its average pace between late 2014 and mid-2015; even if this rate slackens the euro area should get there in early 2016.

The bitter aftertaste will be that it has taken eight or so years to accomplish this. By contrast, it took less than four years for the American economy to expand beyond its pre-crisis peak of late 2007. Since passing that milestone in the autumn of 2011. America’s GDP has grown to be nearly 10% bigger. Yet the risk of a slowdown in growth for Europe, together with stubbornly low inflation, are considerable and will mean the European Central Bank’s programme of quantitive easing will carry on beyond September 2016, when the ECB originally scheduled it to end.