POLAND is giving Brussels a headache. Since the socially conservative and mildly Eurosceptic Law and Justice party (PiS in Polish) won the parliamentary elections on October 25th, the country has gone from being the poster child of European integration to enfant terrible. The new government has defied the European Union’s warnings, pushing through laws that critics see as weakening constitutional checks and balances and media freedom. Centrists and liberals warn of “Orbanisation”, fearing that Poland is following the illiberal path of Viktor Orban, the Hungarian prime minister.
If the EU can put up with rule-breaking in Hungary, why does it mind more about Poland?
Chiefly because Poland matters more: it is the EU’s six-largest economy and the biggest of the ex-communist countries that joined the bloc in 2004. It is a frontline state, with a border with Russia and will host the NATO summit in July. The EU needs Polish help on climate-change (it is a big coal producer).
How far is the criticism actually justified?
PiS is the first party to govern Poland alone since the fall of communism. Its victory stems more from disgust with the previous government, a coalition led by the centrist Civic Platform (PO), which had been in power since 2007. But PiS won the election by promising moderate change, not revolution, and it sidelined its most controversial figure, the party leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski. Since the election, Mr Kaczynski is centre stage, with his key allies appointed to the most important posts. The moderate but lightweight Beata Szydlo, nominally prime minister, has been sidelined. Mr Kaczynski’s goal is to complete what he sees as the unfinished revolution of 1989, sweeping away corruption and influence of old communist apparatchiks. He pursues that at breakneck speed, with late-night stunts and orders (including a raid on a NATO-affiliated spy school). The party has used its majority to ram through changes in supposedly neutral institutions such as the security services, the constitutional court, the civil service and, most recently, public broadcasting.That threatens to weaken the institutions which Poland has built up during the past 25 years. Mr Kaczynski also shows a blind eye to business concerns, has an eccentric anti-German foreign policy, and uses incendiary language about migrants, saying they carry “various diseases.”
What can Brussels do?
Some EU officials want Poland to be monitored, using a rule-of-law mechanism adopted by the EU in 2014. In the worst-case scenario, Warsaw’s voting rights in the EU could be suspended, based on Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union, which refers to “serious and persistent breach” of EU values. It would be a first in the EU’s history. The procedure is lengthy and could be blocked by other EU countries. Moreover, outside criticism could backfire. Poles are broadly pro-European, but some resent being told what to do by Brussels and—particularly—Berlin. Like his Hungarian counterpart Mr Orban, Mr Kaczynski could play on this, presenting Poland as a besieged fortress. The big winner from Polish isolation would be Vladimir Putin.