President Obama, who has weighed ruling out a first use of a nuclear weapon in a conflict, appears likely to abandon the proposal after top national security advisers argued that it could undermine allies and embolden Russia and China, according to several senior administration officials.
Mr. Obama considers a reduction in the role of nuclear weapons as critical to his legacy. But he has been chagrined to hear critics, including some former senior aides, argue that the administration’s second-term nuclear modernization plans, costing up to $1 trillion in coming decades, undermine commitments he made in 2009.
For months, arms control advocates have argued for a series of steps to advance the pledge he made to pursue “a world without nuclear weapons.” An unequivocal no-first-use pledge would have been the boldest of those measures. They contend that as a practical matter no American president would use a nuclear weapon when so many other options are available.
Former Defense Secretary William J. Perry said in a recent interview, “It’s the right time,” noting that the pledge would formalize what has been America’s unspoken policy for decades.
But in the end, Mr. Obama seems to have sided with his current advisers, who warned in meetings culminating this summer that a no-first-use declaration would rattle allies like Japan and South Korea. Those nations are concerned about discussion of an American pullback from Asia prompted by comments made by the Republican presidential nominee, Donald J. Trump.
Defense Secretary Ashton B. Carter and Secretary of State John Kerry also expressed concern that new moves by Russia and China, from the Baltic to the South China Sea, made it the wrong time to issue the declaration, according to senior aides in the Defense and State Departments. Secretary of Energy Ernest J. Moniz, whose department oversees the nuclear arsenal, joined in the objections, administration officials confirmed.
The New York Times interviewed more than a half-dozen administration officials involved in or briefed on the nuclear debate. All insisted on anonymity to describe internal administration deliberations on nuclear strategy.
“Our nonnuclear strength, including economic and diplomatic power, our alliances, our conventional and cyber weaponry and our technological advantages, constitute a global military juggernaut unmatched in history,” they concluded.
Mr. Obama made the eventual elimination of nuclear arms a centerpiece of his 2008 presidential campaign. In contrast, Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee, has said little this year about her nuclear plans, and Mr. Trump has argued for a major military buildup.
Once Mr. Obama took office, his ambitions were frustrated. While he achieved a major arms control treaty, New Start, in 2010 — driven through the Senate by Mr. Kerry — it came at a price: He won Republican votes by agreeing to a sweeping plan to modernize the American nuclear arsenal and build a new generation of weapon carriers, including bombers, missiles and submarines.
In 2013, some of Mr. Obama’s former national security officials criticized the plan, saying his original vision was in danger of being turned on its head. The doubters included Philip E. Coyle III and Steve Fetter, who had recently left White House posts.
One study estimated the modernization cost at $1 trillion over three decades.
The Federation of American Scientists, a private group in Washington, released an analysis showing that Mr. Obama had dismantled fewer nuclear warheads than any other post-Cold War president.
Inside the White House, Mr. Obama asked for new ideas to advance his agenda before leaving office. In May, he went to Hiroshima — the first American president to do so — and reaffirmed his vision of a nonnuclear world.
“We must have the courage to escape the logic of fear,” he said at the Hiroshima Peace Memorial. “We may not realize this goal in my lifetime. But persistent effort can roll back the possibility of catastrophe.”
Ten days later, Benjamin J. Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser, outlined possible efforts in a speech to the Arms Control Association, a private group in Washington. His list included putting more nuclear material under tight security, reaffirming a global ban on nuclear testing and revisiting the administration’s plans to modernize the nuclear arsenal. It was an agenda sure to please his audience, but one that would largely fall to the next administration to execute.
The president, Mr. Rhodes said, “will continue to review these plans as he considers how to hand the baton off to his successor.” That review included the no-first-use pledge.
Behind the scenes, Mr. Carter argued that a ban on first use would be unwise. If North Korea used biological weapons against the South, he and other Pentagon officials said, the United States might need the option of threatening a nuclear response. Mr. Kerry argued that Japan would be unnerved by any diminution of the American nuclear umbrella, and perhaps be tempted to obtain their own weapons. The same argument, he said, applied to South Korea.
Mr. Kerry and Mr. Carter have not taken public positions in large part because they do not want to appear to influence Mr. Obama as he makes a decision.
Had Mr. Obama issued the no-first-use declaration, officials conceded, the next president could have rejected it. In an interview this year, Mr. Trump bristled at the idea, saying he would never want to weaken America’s leverage. Mrs. Clinton has not spoken on the issue during her campaign.
But a no-first-use policy would have been hard for either to undo. Military experts say the next president would hesitate to reverse such a decision since the quick reversal would confuse allies and possibly fray important coalitions.